, 3 tweets, 1 min read
One problem for Gymiah in Kensington and Umunna in Cities of London and Westminster is that both seats have v high ethnic minority vote shares - and ethnic minorities have, so far, been much more loyal to Labour than most other groups
An LD win in either could require winning over almost the entirety of the Con vote unless EM behaviour changes, and that seems unlikely given that *some* of that Con vote will be Leave, even in central London seats.
LDs may be assuming that EM voters are more willing to back an EM Lib Dem candidate, but there isn't much evidence for that having a big effect in past elections.
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