Quick thread with initial thoughts on why #Lebanon’s PM @saadhariri just chose to resign, in defiance of orders from Hizbullah’s Nasrallah: (1)
@saadhariri First, just look at #Tripoli, #Sidon & #Beirut, Hariri’s traditional pillars of support (Sidon is his hometown), which have been major sites of #LebanonProtests. Every day this cabinet remained he was hemorrhaging what little popularity he still preserved (2)
@saadhariri Second, today’s disgraceful violence by Hizb & Amal thugs in Beirut was a great embarrassment to him. It’s one thing to be in coalition with your political foes when there’s a measure of stability in the country; quite another to be covering for them as they assault citizens (3)
@saadhariri Hizb & Amal sought to implicate the entire cabinet in their thuggery, and evidently thought Hariri would consent, as he’s consented to so much else in the past. If so, they miscalculated (4)
@saadhariri Finally, though this may be rather dated way of analyzing Lebanon, Hariri’s traditional Saudi backers might have pressed him. Don't forget MBS has wanted him to resign since 2017. Saudi media has eagerly backed #LebanonProtests, framing them as blow to Hizb first & foremost (5)
@saadhariri In any case, #Lebanon’s protesters can celebrate achieving one of their key demands. But, as I’ve been repeating ad nauseam, a toppled cabinet means little if president & MPs remain the same. Will they press now to remove these two as well? The key Q of the coming period (6)
