„P5, Europe, others“ should work with MENA powers to build security order — sounds like we‘re in a post-American world at least with regard to this (former) key region. The „others“ are probably China, India and Japan.
Let’s have a look at the outside powers that have shaped the security order of the region:
- Ottoman Empire for centuries;
- Britain and France from WWI until the 1950s/1960s;
- US and Soviet Union during later Cold War;
- US since end of Cold War;
- currently: US, Russia
- Ottoman Empire for centuries;
- Britain and France from WWI until the 1950s/1960s;
- US and Soviet Union during later Cold War;
- US since end of Cold War;
- currently: US, Russia
In next years hard to see outside power willing and able to shape regional order:
- US on way out, largely;
- Russia ambitious but lacks economic power;
- China, other Asians reluctant, far away and unwilling to enter into regional conflicts;
- Europeans too weak and unwilling
- US on way out, largely;
- Russia ambitious but lacks economic power;
- China, other Asians reluctant, far away and unwilling to enter into regional conflicts;
- Europeans too weak and unwilling
Most likely therefore that the regional order will be shaped through conflicts between main powers: a fragile balance of power between mainly brutal autocratic / despotic centers; outside powers interfere militarily to protect specific interests. Syria a perfect example.
