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The nearly month-long federal shutdown over Dec 2018-Jan 2019 shaved 0.2 points off growth in 2018 4th quarter and 0.4 points off 20019 1st quarter.

The economy is slower now, and the growth hit from end-2019 shutdown would be proportionally bigger. 1/x
Trump may be tempted to shut down the govt to thwart impeachment - but any shutdown will impose an economic price directly impinging on his already delicate 2020 hopes. 2/x
Probable outcome: as with so many of his negotiations, Trump will huff and puff - and then capitulate.

This will be the next installment of the economic price that Rs will pay for the Trump scandals. More to come in 2021 ...
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