I've been arguing (see eg this blog) that the Opposition should accept that Johnson has defined Brexit; so as to be able to unite to oppose it and support remain. Many agree. But those who favour a 'better Brexit' find the argument difficult. 1/8
blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/10…
blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/10…
I can understand their position. BUT, and this is where I would like the help of @jonworth @DavidHerdson and others, just how likely is it that we end up with a 'better Brexit'? I can't do the probabilities, but there are a lot of steps... 2/8
First, Labour have to emerge from the GE as one of the parties in a the new Government (I'm not sure that the relative size of the parties matters very much). 3/8
Second, they have to renegotiate a 'better Brexit' deal. Does that involve reopening the WA; or just changes to the PD (the latter are far easier to achieve); or just changes to the WAB (almost certainly not enough)? Will the EU agree to Labour's 'better Brexit' ask? 4/8
Third, the HoC either has to approve this deal without a referendum (almost inconceivable); or agree a referendum between the 'better Brexit' and remain. We are likely to be in mid 2020 by that point. 5/8
Finally, 'better Brexit' has to win the referendum. There are many stages where the plan can fail. I'd be surprised if there is more than a 10% chance of us ending up with a 'better Brexit'. 6/8
If that's right, it should give Labour pause for thought. Is it not worth abandoning the (say 10%) chance of a better Brexit; and campaigning more simply (and, for me, effectively) against (Johnson's concrete) Brexit? 7/8
I suspect this is a forlorn hope... but if they are to win this election, the opposition have to work together, both tactically in many seats, and strategically with their core Brexit message. It really shouldn't be as difficult as they are making it appear. 8/8
