Thread by @ramanmann1974

THREAD

Why India should not sign #RCEP

🇮🇳 signed Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN,Korea & Japan,with whom overall trade deficit increased to $41.8 billion 2019 from $15 bill in 2011 & $5 bill in 2006

Imagine d trade deficit spike with #China after RCEP, which is $ 53.6 billion

26.15% of the GVA from India’s #agri sector in 2016-17 was constituted by livestock. Further, 66.93% of the value of livestock output was from #milk i.e. roughly every fifth rupee in agri comes from #dairying. Now, imagine, opening this sector to cheap #milk imports thru #RCEP.😟

Canada allows a small amount of imported products duty-free/low tariffs. Higher amounts attract steep tariffs– 245% on #cheese or 298% on #butter, shielding Canadian farmers from foreign competition, & we on d other side r devising way to flood India with cheap imports thru #RCEP

The learning from China-ASEAN FTA are also not so encouraging. Since full enactment of ACFTA in 2010, ASEAN- 6 countries’ (Indo, Malay, Thai, Viet, Phil, Sing) goods trade with China has gone from a surplus of $53 billion to a deficit of $54 billion in 2016. Then why rush #RCEP😏

No of #Dairy Farmers
India=150 million
N.Z=12000
Australia=6300

N.Z exports around 19 MMT out of an annual milk production of 22 MMT, while Australia exports 4 MMT out of its annual milk production of 15 MMT

👉If India signs #RCEP, opens markets, we decimate our dairy #farmers.

India’s avg tariffs at 13.8% r much higher than China (9.8%) & US (3.4%). Considering that🇮🇳's $58 billion trade deficit with China, if🇮🇳were to bring down its tariffs to nil in 90% of d traded goods—as Beijing demands—in #RCEP, it is likely to lead to even higher trade deficit😟

Share of the consumer rupee received by dairy #farmers:
India=60%
Australia=24%
New Zealand=23%

Demand of #milk during 2033-34 would be 292 million metric ton, as against supply of around 330 million metric ton, says @NITIAayog
👉With cheap imports, #farmers share will decrease.

@NITIAayog We must learn from #China, Post Free Trade Agreements like RCEP, China’s annual growth in #dairy dropped from 22% (2000) to 0.06% (2006) & #dairy imports increased from 3.5% to 20% by 2017. We, too moved from self-sufficiency to import dependency post WTO implementation @Rssamul

@NITIAayog @Rssamul While New Zealand demands greater market access for its #dairy products, apples,kiwis & wine into India, India wants greater access of professionals into N.Z

Bartering livelihood of 10 crore Indians associated with dairy, for more access to professionals is definitely a bad deal

@NITIAayog @Rssamul Australia has 5000 #dairy farmers, & 5700 farms, avg of 261 cows

New Zealand has 12000 dairy farmers & 11590 herds, avg=431 cows

India has 7.5 crore farms, avg=1-2 cows

Q-Who suffers if we open our markets to cheap imports thru #RCEP?
Ans-Our farmers
@_YogendraYadav @NYFarmer

@NITIAayog @Rssamul @_YogendraYadav @NYFarmer Imagine the catastrophic effects on the domestic industry/farmers, if India agrees to the #RCEP proposal under which ASEAN members want India to remove customs duties on about 90-92% items that it trades with d countries with which it has a FTA & 80-86% with China, Australia & NZ

@NITIAayog @Rssamul @_YogendraYadav @NYFarmer Already, India imports almost 20% of its non-oil imports from China. Almost 60% of India’s electric machinery imports, 36% of machinery & equipment imports, & 37% of organic chemical imports are from China. Imagine d havoc if India signs #RCEP Free Trade Agreement vis a vis China

@NITIAayog @Rssamul @_YogendraYadav @NYFarmer Mexico is the largest buyer of U.S. #dairy i.e. nearly half of all U.S. exports of powdered milk & 28% of exported cheese, with a value of $1.4 billion in 2018– 8 times higher than when NAFTA went into effect in 1994
👉Hope @PMOIndia accounts such precedents before signing #RCEP

@NITIAayog @Rssamul @_YogendraYadav @NYFarmer @PMOIndia There is an existing Tariff Rate Quotas for milk powder, which enables import of 10,000 ton/year at 15% customs duty & quantities beyond that at regular rate of 60%. Any tinkering #RCEP, will mean that cheap imports will flood our markets, killing realizations of #dairy #farmers.

@NITIAayog @Rssamul @_YogendraYadav @NYFarmer @PMOIndia #Dairy Industry accounts for 25% of our total farm produce. 100 million dairy #farmers earn 25% of their household income from dairying. If #Modi Govt signs #RCEP, & allows cheap Australian & N.Z dairy imports, forget double #income, then the Indian farmer is finished for good.😧

@NITIAayog @Rssamul @_YogendraYadav @NYFarmer @PMOIndia 🇮🇳 dairy processors sell milk powder at Rs 280-300/Kg

👉If India signs #RCEP pact & opens #dairy markets, then Australia & N.Z will sell milk powder at Rs 180/Kg, forcing a slump in milk prices i.e Rs 10/Kg less realization by the #farmer

👉Is this how u double farmer income🙄

@NITIAayog @Rssamul @_YogendraYadav @NYFarmer @PMOIndia N.Z & Australia account for just 6.2% of the world’s cow milk production, but have a combined 72.1%, 21.5%, 58.3% and 24.8% share of the global trade in whole milk powder, skimmed milk powder, butter & cheese, respectively. If 🇮🇳 signs RCEP i.e. opens imports, our #dairy suffers.

@NITIAayog @Rssamul @_YogendraYadav @NYFarmer @PMOIndia NZ's #Milk solids exports r 5 times their organised sector market size in India. NZ exports 95.1% of its whole milk powder production, with corresponding ratios at 87.3% for SMP, 94.5% for butter & 83.6% for cheese. With low production costs, opening imports will kill our farmers

@NITIAayog @Rssamul @_YogendraYadav @NYFarmer @PMOIndia Why should we open our market for imports by signing #RCEP, when a @NITIAayog recent report of Feb 2018 has shown that India’s #milk production in 2016-17, at 162.5 million tonnes (mt), exceeded the demand of 147.5 mt, with this gap projected to widen by 2032-33. @Devinder_Sharma