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, 7 tweets, 2 min read
The huge problem with the Brexit referendum was that politicians on the Leave side could make "promises" knowing they wouldn't have to implement them.

Why? Because unlike a GE, the referendum didn't change the composition of Parliament. Leave weren't in power before or after.
This wasn't a surprise. Everyone knew that was the case. And yet Leave made bold assurances as if they were going to go on to deliver them.

But you cannot have a fair situation in which one side can make stuff up that the other side has to implement regardless of feasibility.
Leave were free to promise:
- contradictory things
- impossible things
- damaging things
because at no point was the responsibility of delivering those things going to be theirs.
Remain meant "stay in the EU under our existing membership conditions". If the referendum had gone the other way, it could have been implemented in less time than it takes you to read this tweet.
But Leave meant many different things depending on which members of Leave.EU and Vote Leave you listened to. It is beyond doubt that different points of view were put forward by different parts of the Leave campaign.
So while individual voters will have made up their minds and voted Leave based on the notions and ideas that most attracted them, it's impossible to claim with a straight face that every one of those voters voted for the *same* thing.
- Voters didn't know what they were voting for: WRONG
- Everyone who voted Leave voted for the same outcome: WRONG
- The Remain camp during the referendum had an obligation to implement whatever Leave promised: WRONG
- The referendum was binding: WRONG
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Edwin Hayward ('Slaying Brexit Unicorns' author)
@uk_domain_names
A lot is said about how young people "don't vote", but the reality is much more nuanced - and more interesting! In fact, the youngest voters are a super-important source of Remain votes. Take a look at the table below, then I'll go through it...
As you can see, the youngest voters are the least likely group to vote. In the 2017 GE, only 57% of registered voters between 18-24 voted.

However, they are very, very Remain-focused. So even with that smaller turnout they contribute enormously to Remain's cause.
That's what I have teased out in the last column. Using the 2017 Ge turnout figures as a guide, and expressed Remain/Leave voting intentions by age from last year, you can see that 100 registered voters between 18-24 would mean 44 votes for Remain and just 10 votes for Leave.
Read 14 tweets
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Edwin Hayward ('Slaying Brexit Unicorns' author)
@uk_domain_names
63,500 new voter registrations yesterday. Bit of an uptick. We have until 26 November to register as many voters as possible. After that, the election will be decided by those who have registered.
Remain tendency is strongest among younger voters. And just look at how many of them there are! 53,452 out of those 63,500 newly registered voters are aged 44 or under - that's a whopping 84%!
Here's some survey data from last year that highlights the size of the generational gap when it comes to Brexit...
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
Read 4 tweets
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Edwin Hayward ('Slaying Brexit Unicorns' author)
@uk_domain_names
Tactical voting can win the election for Remain and/or people's vote friendly parties.

However, the tactic can't be "vote Labour everywhere" or "vote LibDem everywhere". That's not a tactic. That's partisan politics.

So if you're advocating either, you're not being tactical.
And if that's the case, at least be honest about it.

Don't try to dress partisanship up as a tactic. Because you're cheating yourself - and others too.

Brexit is bigger than party loyalty. If you don't agree, that's fine. But again, just be honest about it.
And if you're planning to vote for a party that can't *possibly* win the seat under any circumstances, that's fine too - but it's not tactical.

So for example a Green vote in most seats. That's a political statement. But it's not a tactic. Not when it comes to stopping Brexit.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Faculty of Arts
@ArtsUnimelb
Confused about #Brexit? Same🙋

That's why we're at Prof/ Philomena Murray's
@pbmurray1 free public lecture 'Reflection on Europe's future: borders, beliefs and Brexit'. We'll be live-tweeting the highlights, make sure you follow along 👇
@pbmurray1 While we're getting started, catch up with Professor Murray's Pursuit piece on the subject @pbmurray1:
pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/the-f…
@pbmurray1 Prof Murray begins by comparing Brexit to a cat that acts like it wants to go out...but never actually goes 🤣🤣
Read 28 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
With the #Brexit Party rumoured to be standing only in pro-Leave Labour seats it begs the question: which ones?
#GE2019 - thread
Based simply on UKIP's 2015 GE result, where there is record of Farage support, then Heywood & Middleton, Rotherham, Dagenham & Rainham, Rother Valley, Hartlepool, G Grimsby, Wentworth & Dearne, Stoke N, Doncaster C, Dudley N, Bolton SE, Don Valley, Barnsley E all good picks
If you scroll down the list, though UKIP is still on 20%+, then you are looking at the likes of Makerfield, Kingston Hull East, Blyth Valley, Barking, Walsall North, South Shields, Barnsley Central, Houghton and Sunderland S, Ashfield
Read 7 tweets
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Ben Kelly
@TheScepticIsle
Support for ‘no deal’ Brexit is the pinnacle of Leave's descent into zealotry. The end result of refusing to plan

Like Trump, 'no deal' advocates have flooded the debate with “alternative facts”
It won't end well

THREAD! PLEASE RETWEET!

#Brexit #WTOBrexit #NoDealBrexit #SOS
The increased support for a ‘no deal’ Brexit is the ultimate failure of the Leave movement. It’s the inevitable consequence of the refusal to grasp details, come to terms with complexity & coalesce around a plan. Compromise can be frustrating. So instead they will have a tantrum.
Some Brexiteers advocated sensible solutions. The EFTA/EEA solution gained a lot of traction in the years before the ref. Even Farage had promoted it & countless others. See Farage below from 2011 essentially making the ‘Liberal Leave’ case!
Read 55 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So @AndrewDuffEU has had a crack at re-writing the #Brexit political declaration.

It's less baggy than the actual PD, which was an empty vessel.

The point is to tap the nexus between more clarity in PD opening door to some flex on WA.

Some highlights 1/thread
@AndrewDuffEU The big one is a Customs Union, or rather much clearler signalling that that is where we are heading.

Tory Buccaneers will hate this, obviously, but in the absence of Irish border unicorns we're heading there anyway. Which is why they hate the deal of course. /2
@AndrewDuffEU Then Free Movement. Softer here, hinting heavily that the new immigration regime won't impact so hard on existing EU-UK exchanges.

Its the kind of language that would reassure the EU that there new neighbours are good citizens, not arsonists who would burn their house down./3
Read 9 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#brexit seems to be all about feeling over fact and this is especially true of the ReesMogg ERG faction of the Tory right.
I never bought the line that #brexit is about Democracy because most of the Tory right had zero enthusiasm for improving democracy in the UK few of them care about unelected house of lords the unfair FPTP electoral system or transparency on the contrary
Most of the Tory right are interested only in constitutional changes that suit them and if anything strive to be as little democratically accountable as possible.
Read 23 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Brexit #xenophobia #EU #PeoplesVote #Fraud #DisasterCapitalismClub #NoDealBrexit #FBPE #StopArt50Clock #noBrexit #FutureofEurope #PeoplesVoteMarch #GE2019 #WTOBrexit #HostileEnvironment #LeaveEU #PECS #Busted #Newry #alliance4Europe #brexit #BorisJohnson #challenge #timefortruths #UKIP
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