My take on Macron's interview with the Economist -- thread. economist.com/europe/2019/11…
After his speech to the French ambassadors in August, this is the second public window into Macron's geostrategic thinking. Both are variations on a similar theme: Europe's geopolitical role in a changing world. /1
lv.ambafrance.org/Ambassadors-co…
lv.ambafrance.org/Ambassadors-co…
What's clear is that Macron is a disrupter. He wants to lead change, bring France and Europe into a post-Cold War world. Yet while his ambition and energy is laudable, his analysis is often questionable and his foreign policy initiatives are problematic. /2
Macron's grand strategy is to build a Europe free from US dependence. The US is held responsible for Europe's trouble with the Middle East (regime change policies), and the US is seen as responsible for Europe's tensions with Russia (Europe as "Trojan horse"). /3
This is Macron's grand strategy in a nutshell: "If we want to build peace in Europe, to rebuild European strategic autonomy, we need to reconsider our position with Russia." /4
For Macron, Nato is part of a dying order: the body is still there but life is almost gone. "To my mind, what we are currently experiencing is the brain death of Nato." We can assume that the disciple of Paul Ricoeur chooses his words with great care, and means what he says. /5
What's wrong with Nato? „Nato was designed in response to an enemy: the Warsaw Pact. In 1990 we didn’t reassess this geopolitical project in the slightest when our initial enemy vanished. The unarticulated assumption is that the enemy is still Russia.“ /6
Yet Nato is useless for dealing with the region that matters most to Macron: the South. "When we intervene in Syria against terrorism, it’s not actually Nato that intervenes. … so, the question about the present purpose of Nato is a real question that needs to be asked.“ /7
Trouble in the South is caused by "us" (in fact the US): "We've sometimes made mistakes by wanting to impose our values, by changing regimes, without popular support. It's what happened in Iraq or in Libya. It is perhaps what was envisaged at one point in Syria but failed." /8
Yet what Nato does successfully today, deter Russia, isn't a task Macron seems to support. In his view, the problems with Russia have not emerged because of Russian revisionism, they have emerged because of Europe's failures. /9
Europe has accepted to be perceived as a „Trojan horse" of the US / Nato by Russia. On behalf of the US, Europe has cornered Russia which is just defending itself. The US "is really tough with Russia" because of America's "administrative, political and historic superego." /10
Macron wants to overcome Russia's hostility via engagement: „What I’ve proposed is an exercise that consists of stating how we see the world, the risks we share, the common interests we could have, and how we rebuild what I’ve called an architecture of trust and security.“ /11
In fact, Europe must decouple is Russia strategy from the US, we should "not just follow American sanctions". /12
Macron is trying to convince Central Europeans to agree to his rapprochement with Russia by working with Hungary: "I had a very long discussion on this subject with Victor Orban. He is quite close to our views" and may help "convince the Poles a little more". /13
Macron also thinks that Nato is not vital for Europe's defense because France / Europe can defend itself. "We should reassess the reality of what Nato is in the light of the commitment of the United States. … Europe has the capacity to defend itself." /14
The US in Macron's grand design is an outside ally and partner not needed for Europe's defense. A future, sovereign Europe (supposedly under French leadership) can handle Russia and deal with threats in its southern neighborhood — better than America did in the past. /15
What's the problem with this approach? A flawed analysis of the problems that have led to conflicts in the Southern Mediterranean, and a misinterpretation of what's driving Russia, which is more than a passive object of American policies. /16
More importantly, Macron's view of America's future role in and for Europe, and especially his push for rapprochement with Putin's Russia, have no chance to become the new European consensus. They are going to lead to deeper divisions and more tensions in Europe. /17
