Thread by @PoliticsWolf

1/ A court blocked North Carolina's 10-3 GOP-majority congressional germander, & GOP legislators are redrawing the map & could pass one next week. The GOP suspiciously hasn't shared any of their draft maps online, but Dems have, so I'll post those maps in this thread #NCGA #NCpol

2/ This North Carolina draft congressional map was drawn by Democratic state Sen. Ben Clark on Wednesday. Here are the partisan and demographic summary stats for it #NCGA #NCpol

3/ This North Carolina draft congressional map was drawn by Democratic state Rep. Jean Farmer-Butterfield on Friday. Here are the partisan and demographic summary stats for it #NCGA #NCpol

4/ This North Carolina draft congressional map was drawn by Democratic state Rep. Pricey Harrison on Friday. Here are the partisan and demographic summary stats for it #NCGA #NCpol

5/ This North Carolina draft congressional map was drawn by Democratic state Rep. Shelly Willingham on Thursday. Here are the partisan and demographic summary stats for it #NCGA #NCpol

6/ I was able to analyze one North Carolina draft congressional map that Republican state Sen. Ralph Hise drew on Wednesday. Here are the partisan and demographic summary stats for it plus the 2018 results, but the GOP still hasn't uploaded the official files for it #NCGA #NCpol

7/ Here's my own proposal to redraw North Carolina's congressional map in a nonpartisan manner. This map is more compact than every other map in this thread, splits just 4 cities & the minimum possible # of 12 VTDs/county parts, & it preserves communities of interest #NCGA #NCpol

8/ Some additional context on the map in the 4th tweet in this thread, which wasn’t mainly a Dem proposal. I’ll keep adding maps to this thread as they get published. Legislators return to the drawing room on Tuesday

https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1193198330404376578?s=21

9/ A draft congressional map from NC Dems uses SCOTUS' 2012 Tennant v. Jefferson County ruling to split only 7 counties. I like this map & it should be legal under federal law, but I wouldn't draw it solely to avoid giving federal courts any new reason to intervene #NCGA #NCpol

https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1194267989106810881

10/ NC Republicans continue to try to draw an 8-5 GOP majority congressional gerrymander by cracking the Dem-leaning Sandhills region among three GOP-leaning districts. I'll have partisan & demographic analysis for these maps as soon as they upload the files online #NCGA #NCpol

https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1194269537908092930

11/ Republicans have *finally* filed their first NC congressional maps (the Hise & Newton ones), & several Dems have filed proposals too, but none of these yet have shapefiles or block assignment files I'd need to do quick computations #NCGA #NCpol ncleg.gov/Committees/Com…

12/ North Carolina Republicans plan to vote soon on a new congressional map that hasn't even been selected yet, & we've barely had any time for public input thanks to their legislative blitzkrieg #NCpol #NCGA

https://twitter.com/GarrettBNews/status/1194334050741178368

13/ North Carolina Republicans are allowing very little opportunity for public input, but if you can make it to Raleigh tomorrow, you can testify against their proposed congressional gerrymanders & in favor of #FairMaps. #NCpol #NCGA

https://twitter.com/SenatorClark/status/1194339745792327681

14/ NEW: I now have the files needed to analyze the North Carolina congressional maps legislators have filed online. First up, I'll look at the partisan and demographic stats for the six Republican-drawn maps, then the Dems when I get a chance #NCpol #NCGA ncleg.gov/Committees/Com…

15/ This Republican proposal for an North Carolina congressional map was drawn by state Rep. Paul Newton. It appears to give Republicans an 8-5 majority with few other seats winnable for Dems. Note how it cracks the Sandhills among 3 districts #NCGA #NCpol

16/ These two Republican congressional map proposals by state Sen. Ralph Hise also look likely to elect an 7-5 Republican majority with 1 swing district. These two maps also cracks the Dem-leaning Sandhills among 3 Trump districts #NCGA #NCpol

17/ This third proposal by GOP state Sen. Ralph Hise appears to have used the bipartisan judges' proposal as its baseline for parts of the map. This one isn't as bad as the others, but Districts 6, 7, & 10 awkwardly combine very different communities of interest #NCGA #NCpol

18/ This congressional map proposal by Republican state Rep. David Lewis appears likely to elect a majority of 8 Republicans, 4 Democrats, & one Dem-leaning swing district. It contains several districts that awkwardly combine very different communities such as NC-09 #NCGA #NCpol

19/ This congressional gerrymander by GOP state Rep. David Lewis is almost as extreme as the map that got blocked in court (Lewis was the one who admitted the old map was gerrymandered). It would likely elect a 9-4 GOP majority, little different than the old 10-3 map #NCGA #NCpol

20/ You can find all of my data calculations for these maps in this folder. I calculated all 2008-2018 statewide elections (plus some 2004), 2016 primary turnout, adult citizen racial demographics, & adult educational attainment rates for every district drive.google.com/open?id=1UG52u…

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1194379126813052929

21/ I'll have the calculations done for Democratic congressional map proposals later this evening, but at first glance they appear fairer than what Republicans proposed (no surprise there)

22/ I've also calculated all of these stats for North Carolina's 2002-2010 Democratic congressional gerrymander, 2012-2014 Republican gerrymander, 2016-2018 Republican gerrymander, & the GOP's post-2010 legislative gerrymanders here: drive.google.com/drive/folders/…

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1194385676868829184

22/ I suspect GOP state Rep. David Lewis drew this extreme 9-4 Republican-majority congressional gerrymander so that Republicans can point to their 8-5 R-majority gerrymanders and say "see, they weren't THAT unfair" #NCGA #NCpol

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1194379133674909696

23/ These 2 congressional map proposals were drawn by Dem state Sen. Ben Clark & do what I think is the best job of preserving communities of interest of any legislator's maps so far. These look likely to go 7-6 GOP, although Dems could pull off an upset in #NC11. #NCGA #NCpol

24/ However, these maps have a problem by relying on SCOTUS' decision in Tennant v. Jefferson County to draw districts whose populations deviate by <1% to avoid splitting 5 counties. While I believe that complies with Tennant, it risks giving federal courts a reason to intervene

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1194453231662813184

25/ These 2 congressional map proposals were drawn by Democratic state Rep. Jean Farmer-Butterfield. The second one looks like an unfinished draft because its population disparities are too big, but the first one looks like a 7-6 GOP-majority map with a swingy #NC11. #NCGA #NCpol

26/ Democratic state Rep. Elmer Floyd proposed this congressional map, which looks likely to go 8-5 Republican but has a handful of competitive GOP-leaning seats. However, this one has some major community of interest violations in the Piedmont Triad & Durham #NCGA #NCpol

27/ The final congressional map was proposed by Democratic state Rep. Pricey Harrison, which saw her redraw a proposal by Republicans & is kind of a hodgepodge. It looks likely to go 6-5 GOP with 2 red-leaning swing districts #NCGA #NCpol

28/ Here's my nonpartisan North Carolina congressional proposal again for reference. It's more compact than what legislators have proposed, has the minimum 12 precinct & county splits, splits just 4 cities, & respects communities of interest. It's 7R-6D politically #NCpol #NCGA

29/ This is the lone North Carolina congressional map that is on the GOP-majority state House committee's agenda for 9 AM ET tomorrow, & it's a gerrymander designed to lock in an 8-5 GOP majority #NCGA #NCpol

https://twitter.com/CommonCauseNC/status/1194756586159431680

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1194379127601582080

30/ Here's a better-looking map of the proposed 8-5 GOP-majority congressional gerrymander that North Carolina House Republicans will take up tomorrow morning. This map splits 19 municipalities, many of which were easily avoidable. My map in tweet #28 split just 4 #NCGA #NCpol

31/ My data calculations for this map (Newton) are at the bottom of this folder with the other proposals. For each district, there's 2004-2018 statewide election results, 2016 primary turnout, adult citizens by race, & educational attainment drive.google.com/open?id=1j_HQn… #NCGA #NCpol

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1194781437792116736

32/ Something that hasn't gotten nearly as much attention as it deserves in this month's North Carolina congressional redistricting process is the role of communities of interest. Here are census block group maps of 2 key socioeconomic indicators, income & education #NCGA #NCpol

33/ My proposed nonpartisan North Carolina congressional map sought to keep communities of interest together, & here's how it looks in terms of income & education stats. I tried to avoid combining communities with disparate socioeconomic stats together #NCGA #NCpol

34/ In contrast to my nonpartisan map in the previous tweet, the North Carolina GOP's 8-5 congressional gerrymander proposal combines areas that have vastly different socioeconomic stats. District 5, 8, 9, & 10 are particularly notable in that regard #NCGA #NCpol

35/ This tweet & the previous one illustrate how the Republican congressional proposal cracks Fayetteville & the Sandhills region by combining that lower-income/education region with the high-income/education suburbs of Charlotte in 2 separate east-west districts #NCGA #NCpol

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1194808213406801920

36/ GOP state Rep. David Lewis (who infamously admitted he drew a 10-3 GOP congressional gerrymander in 2016 because he thought 11-2 was impossible), has unveiled a potential amendment to the GOP's map, but the changes are modest overall #NCGA #NCpol

https://twitter.com/RepDavidRLewis/status/1194800184762552321

37/ I've uploaded the partisan & demographic stats for my proposed NC congressional map to the same folder linked here that contains the Democratic & Republican legislators' proposals. The map the GOP is taking up tomorrow is the Newton one: drive.google.com/open?id=1UG52u… #NCGA #NCpol

https://twitter.com/JasonMMcGrath/status/1194812260104974337

38/ Here's the latest North Carolina congressional map the state House GOP is considering. It's likely to secure an 8-5 GOP majority, & socioeconomic maps show that it combines vastly different communities in Districts 8 & 9. Full data here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… #NCGA #NCpol

39/ The most gerrymandered part of this map is how GOP cracked the Sandhills between two districts that include Charlotte's suburbs. District 9 combines one of the least white, least educated, lowest income areas of NC with some of the richest & heavily white suburbs #NCpol #NCGA

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1195007592830926849

The flaw with this analysis is that there's nothing special about a median of computer-generated maps because not all maps would be valued equally by humans, & they don't account for communities of interest. Fairer maps are possible with neutral criteria, that's all that matters

https://twitter.com/will_doran/status/1195005565384028161

41/ This is another key flaw with the analysis relying on the computer-generated maps. Not all 8-5 GOP-majority maps are the same. Even a fairer 8-5 map would have more GOP-leaning swing districts than the 8-5 map the GOP drew, which is designed to withstand a Dem-favoring year

https://twitter.com/EJSbrocco/status/1195013545932599298

42/ North Carolina GOP has passed the GOP's new, slightly less gerrymandered congressional map out of House committee on a party line vote. Here's the map & its partisan & demographic stats. It would likely elect an 8-5 GOP majority on average #NCpol #NCGA

https://twitter.com/NCCapitol/status/1195028280870502400

43/ Here's the amended congressional map North Carolina GOP is talking about using. It moves Chowan & Perquimans Counties to #NC03 & puts more of Greenville in #NC01, making it bluer than their previous proposal. They didn't provide the files I need for partisan data #NCGA #NCpol

44/ The amendment passes, sounds like it was along party lines

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1195078422541692928

45/ Next up is a Democratic amendment to pass a map that would likely go 7-6 GOP instead of 8-5 GOP like Republicans' map. This map does a pretty good job preserving communities of interest, so of course the GOP just voted it down #NCGA #NCpol

46/ Another Democratic amendment would have passed this map instead of the GOP's congressional map, but Republicans just voted it down too #NCGA #NCpol

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1194457688391815168

47/ This congressional map was a Democratic amendment by state Rep. Jean Farmer-Butterfield, but Republicans just voted it down, too #NCGA #NCpol

48/ This is the final Democratic amendment, again by state Rep. Jean Farmer-Butterfield. This is one of the fairest congressional maps I've seen from legislators & would likely go 7-6 GOP, but Republicans just voted it down #NCGA #NCpol

49/ There's a late amendment from Democratic state Rep. Joe Sam Queen to revert the GOP's congressional map in western NC back to a previous GOP-backed version. It would redraw the 5th & 11th Districts like this. Republicans voted down the amendment #NCGA #NCpol

50/ North Carolina Republicans just passed their new congressional map in the state House along party lines. This map gerrymanders an 8-5 GOP majority. Here are the partisan & demographic stats for it (the amended 1st & 3rd are slightly different; I'll update ASAP) #NCGA #NCpol

51/ Republicans will likely pass their new congressional gerrymander in the state Senate tomorrow, enacting it into law (governor can't veto, but Dems could file a new lawsuit). #NCpol #NCGA

https://twitter.com/brentlaurenz/status/1195092655639797760

52/ Back in 2011, the Republican majority leader was caught saying that no Republican is supposed to talk publicly about redistricting except state Rep. David Lewis, because "David can obfuscate more than anybody I know." wral.com/news/state/ncc… #NCGA #NCpol

https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1195094330005970949

53/ House Republicans just voted to adjourn for two months, so this is very likely the map that the Senate will pass tomorrow. I'll have a better-looking image of the map & full partisan data once they upload the needed files #NCGA #NCpol

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1195092382401695744

54/ Here is the congressional map that North Carolina Republicans passed along party lines in the state House today & will likely pass in the Senate tomorrow, along with my partisan & demographic calculations for it. It's likely to go 8-5 GOP docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… #NCpol #NCGA

55/ Agreed. Republicans practically recreated the current gerrymander in southeastern North Carolina. Protecting incumbents who were elected under gerrymandered districts only perpetuated the old gerrymander. I expect more litigation to succeed against it

https://twitter.com/rickhasen/status/1195126800432582656

56/ Almost there: North Carolina Republicans have passed their new congressional map out of state Senate committee, & the full chamber will likely pass the map into law after 2 PM ET. But that likely won't be the end of litigation over it #NCGA #NCpol

https://twitter.com/NCCapitol/status/1195370914742816768

57/ North Carolina Senate Dems offered an amendment to pass this congressional map instead, calling out how the GOP's map cracks the Sandhills region. This map would be fairer & likely produce a 7-6 GOP majority instead of 8-5, so of course the GOP voted it down #NCGA #NCpol

58/ The GOP is basically arguing that two wrongs make a right, & Tillman is admitting that the GOP is about to pass a new congressional gerrymander #NCGA #NCpol

https://twitter.com/TravisFain/status/1195431873968689153

59/ BREAKING: North Carolina Republicans have passed their new congressional map into law, but further litigation is likely. I've analyzed the partisan & demographic stats for the map, & it gerrymanders a fairly secure 8-5 GOP majority #NCGA #NCpol dailykos.com/stories/2019/1…

60/ There is a good chance the court will reject the GOP's new congressional gerrymander & order a fairer map like the one I've drawn here. My map is more compact, splits far fewer cities, & has less GOP partisan bias compared to the GOP gerrymander #NCpol #NCGA

61/ I've calculated the 2004-2018 statewide election results, 2016 primary turnout demographics, adult citizen racial demographics, & educational attainment rates for all the districts, & you can find my data here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… #NCGA #NCpol

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1195437241318772741

62/ If this map is upheld in court, Dems would almost certainly flip #NC02 & #NC06, replacing GOP Reps. George Holding in Raleigh & Mark Walker in Greensboro, but Dems have few other pickup opportunities. Litigation will likely focus on how the GOP cracked the Sandhills #NCpol

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1195437241318772741

63/ As expected, the plaintiffs opposing the North Carolina GOP's congressional gerrymander have announced they'll challenge the new map the GOP just passed. A state court previously blocked the GOP's current gerrymander, & it could do the same for the new map & draw its own map