Profile picture
, 4 tweets, 2 min read
My Authors
Read all threads
Right. And there was I thinking tariff-free UK-EU trade is a given if they can agree a post-Brexit deal.

More and more trade experts are saying that assumption is wrong.

Here's another, @CER_Grant

1/4
Quote: “Unless UK agrees to automatic aligning with EU rules on social/envt/state aid/some tax, UK will not get ‘Canada’ but a much less good deal, with tariffs. This is because France fears a super-competitive ‘Singapore-on-Thames’.”

2/4
standard.co.uk/news/politics/…
And a more detailed explanation in this thread:



3/4
I don't mind being wrong. But the idea that UK-EU will not even be able to agree a tariff-free deal would make a nonsense of Brexit.

I know some out there will say it never made any sense, but there were some sensible ideas.

This outcome wouldn't be one of them.

4/4
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Peter Ungphakorn

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @CoppetainPU see all

Profile picture
Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
Whenever someone says “just get Brexit done”, we should hear a klaxon.

The “evidence” is the claim that Johnson struck a new deal with the EU in weeks.

He didn’t. He got a revision to the Withdrawal Agreement largely negotiated under May.

Then this👇🏽

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/boris-joh… Screenshot of the top section of the linked pageScreenshot of the next section of the linked page
“Rules of origin”, “GATT Article 24” — some of the fun phrases that have entered the Brexit debate.

Now’s our chance for another — the “level playing-field”.

The launch of the Tories’ manifesto would be an excellent opportunity. Let's see if anyone asks.

(Hint: ECJ) Screenshot: ‘Get Brexit done’? Ask about the<br /> ‘level playing-field’ and its implications for getting Brexit ‘done’<br />
And more specifically:

• Are you going to include services?
• Will you accept EU “level playing-field” demands?
• If “yes”, how will disputes about compliance be handled?
• If “no”, what kind of a deal do you think you can agree with the EU? ‘Get Brexit done’? Ask about the<br /> ‘level playing-field’ and its implications for getting Brexit ‘done’
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
Taking this 👇🏽 as inspiration, I'm searching (quick glance) for UK trade policy in the party manifestos.

1. The LIBDEMS focus on protecting standards (eg, labour, environment, animal welfare) in trade agreements. Trade is mentioned briefly with aid.

libdems.org.uk/plan

1/n
(Trade policy in manifestos—quick glance—cont.)

2. LABOUR also insists trade deals mustn't weaken standards (labour, environment, animal welfare) plus a focus on NHS and drug prices.

The only actual trade policy is UK-EU customs union, alignment.

labour.org.uk/manifesto/

2/n Screenshot of paragraphs on customs union and single market alignment from page 90 of the
Interesting to see if this 👇🏽 on drug pricing receives much attention (p.35, pdf version: labour.org.uk/manifesto/)

Compulsory licensing is when a government decides to bypass certain patent rights, forcing the patent-owner to license the production of generics. …

3/n Screenshot of paragraphs on drug pricing and compulsory licensing
Read 21 tweets
Profile picture
Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
Thanks to @StevePeers for alerting us to this.

To be clear, it’s NOT about separating the UK’s and EU27’s agricultural tariff quotas post-Brexit.

This IS about WTO members’ efforts to improve how tariff quotas are managed or administered

An explanation and update

1/11
A tariff quota is when quantities inside the quota are charged low or zero import duty; quantities outside are charged higher duty, sometimes so high imports are uneconomical.

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/09/08/beg…

2/11
PROBLEM: The way tariff quotas are shared out among importers/exporters (the administration method) could impede trade.

Here 👇🏽 are some methods that have been used. Some are controversial, disliked by exporters but defended by importers.

(From tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/09/08/beg…)

3/11 Screenshot of the box on tariff quota administration methods in the linked article
Read 11 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 It's actually worse than this, since UK must agree to extend transition in by July 1 2020.

But we only paid up Dec 31 2020, so that is going to mean new negotiation on 💶💶💶💶💶💶💶💶💶💶

Now. Consider the timetable... 1/Thread
The new @EU_Commission won't start now until December.

@BorisJohnson is going to have an election.

Officials on both sides clear that trade negotiation mandates and negotiations very unlikely to start before Spring 2020. Say March 1st. /2
@EU_Commission @BorisJohnson The UK, per Withdrawal Agreement (Art 132) must notify of decision to extend the implementation period by *July 1 2020.

That's THREE months after likely start dates of negotiation.

Which means... /3
Read 12 tweets
Profile picture
Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Matters looking rather ropey in the Brexit negotiations. There’s apparently now nothing substantive planned until Biarritz G7 meeting at end of month. You’d expect the sort of briefings emerging from Brussels tonight, and a pinch of salt required etc BUT...
... sending the message that they have interpreted the new negotiator Frost’s meetings as consistent only with leaving with No Deal and calling a GE.. “they can’t climb down from this”...
They recognise that the UK Government is now trying to isolate and put personal pressure on Irish leader Leo Varadkar. So they purposely sent a message of full support for the Irish at the EU Council debrief... and for the backstop etc.
Read 9 tweets
Profile picture
Turnaround & Cash Wars Veteran #FCA #ICAEW
@StuartLothian
Any #Brexit would be a total #Catastrophuc for UK! Reasons will follow in this 12 part thread, to be developed over coming days. If you know of any NET benefits from #Brexit, please feed them in. They'd need to be good to match the >£1bn pw this mess is ALREADY costing US! 1/12.
Easiest one first! Full #EU membership (as NOW) gives the UK unrestricted tariff-free & frictionless trade access to an enlarged & well developed HOME market of 550+ million people in 27 fellow member states, being SO much MORE than our own UK of 4 much smaller parts. 2/12.
Brexiteers discount EU's relentless progress in terms of comprehensive trade deals with international markets. While UK has been a busy fool, chasing Brexit and getting nowhere! EU has signed Canada, Korea, Japan and (recently) Brazil & Argentina! All OURS to access NOW! 3/12.
Read 16 tweets
Profile picture
katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
So.. back to the backstop: Clearly the official EU line is “We’re not budging. The #Brexit Withdrawal Agreement was signed off by Theresa May and cabinet. End of story.” And there is 100% EU sincerity they would love not to have to discuss the thorny issue ever again. But.. /1
Realpolitik means EU leaders know a new UK PM will mean new #Brexit arguments - and crucially - since the EU hopes fervently to avoid no deal - it means new mathematics in Parliament. EU will watch closely to see if new PM could carry a majority for a #Brexit deal /2
To be clear: I am NOT saying here that EU will abandon the backstop if faced with strong new UK PM. EU wants to protect its single market, protect GFA and protect member state Ireland over departing member UK BUT /3
Read 14 tweets
Profile picture
katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU watching indicative votes process closely today- it would welcome softer #Brexit but believes MPs out of touch with reality /1
IF MPs unite around a softer #Brexit and IF Theresa May accepts that wish and communicates it to the EU, Brussels says can amend the political declaration document on post Brexit EU-UK relations in a jiffy BUT /2
All forms of #Brexit (bar no deal or no Brexit) require the much-derided Withdrawal Agreement to pass first /3
Read 7 tweets
Profile picture
katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU has almost given up trying to understand what’s going on in UK.
Dutch PM Rutte compares Theresa May to Monty Python knight whose limbs get cut off in a duel but insists the fight was a draw. Elsewhere in EU, mood is darker esp with the prospect of a lengthy #Brexit delay 1
With UK politics mired in confusion, only thing EU can control this week is choreography at EU leaders’ summit, starting Thurs. Donald Tusk, EU Council president is visiting capitals to try to co-ordinate single EU response if/when Theresa May asks for article 50 extension 2
Today Tusk is in Berlin and Paris – the EU superpowers. But when it comes to delaying Brexit, any one of the EU’s 27 leaders has a veto. The decision must be unanimous 3
Read 16 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Brexit #NewClause4 #Homs #underreported #EU #Syrian #Siria #PointsOfOrder #Palestinians #Remain #Daesh #WarCriminals #SyrianArmy #EUCO #xenophobia #GE2019 #Article50Extension #RegimeChange #Raqqa #PeoplesVote #Howage #EP2019 #OrderPaper #Management #Liberation
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!