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With Johnson’s popularity factored in, the model predicts a 2.4 point Conservative lead over Labour. That suggests the Tories will end up with 311 seats, short of an overall majority but still comfortably ahead of Labour’s expected tally of 268 MPs.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpol…
With Johnson’s popularity factored in, the model predicts a 2.4 point Conservative lead over Labour. That suggests the Tories will end up with 311 seats, short of an overall majority but still comfortably ahead of Labour’s expected tally of 268 MPs.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpol…
Computer simulations can assess the uncertainty of the PM & pendulum model & show a 90% CI for the Tories stretching from 269 to 356 seats. The estimates suggest that Johnson has about a 1: 4 chance of securing the majority (of 326 ⬆️) that he needs to deliver his Brexit deal.
If the 311 seats were correct, then the Tories would only need to pick up 15 votes from the Labour Lexit MPs to get Johnson’s deal over the line.
The Pendulum modelling predicts a less generous outcome to the Tories than most current opinion polls.
The Pendulum modelling predicts a less generous outcome to the Tories than most current opinion polls.
Also for Labour to be doing so badly after nearly 10 years in opposition and in such terrible circumstances is a “testament” to the “leadership” and his team.
That is preventing the pendulum swinging back to Labour.
That is preventing the pendulum swinging back to Labour.
A reminder from Sir John Curtice about the likely binary choices.
