Thread by @KDbyProxy

Today on "What if…?"

What if Bloomberg isn't truly running to become president?

"Ira, what do you mean?"

I mean what if his true goal is ensuring Trump's defeat by spending (eg) $500M… but for legal & strategic reasons it's best done as a candidate?
1/cnn.com/2019/11/15/pol…

Let's say Bloomberg is willing to spend (eg) $400M _on TV ads_ to defeat Trump.

It makes a difference if he's buying TV time as "Committee to Elect Bloomberg" or as "Committee to Defeat Trump".*

* – "CEB" or "CDT"

2/

A TV station has to make ad-time available to CEB; otoh, it can refuse to sell time to CDT.

Also, a TV station must run CEB's ads as-is, ie without making or demanding edits; otoh, if it sells ad-time to CDT, it can make/demand edits before running those ads.

3/

Sinclair Broadcasting owns >190 stations, covering ~40% of US homes. And while it's in business to make money, the controlling owners are strong Trump supporters.

Sinclair could refuse to sell time to CDT, but not to CEB. It could demand edits to CDT's ads, but not CEB's.

4/

And then there's Facebook. With Bloomberg as a candidate, CEB can say whatever it wants about Trump in a Facebook ad; otoh, a CDT ad against Trump would be subject to "fact-checking".

5/

Next: Does it look better/worse/same if the headline says "Candidate-Billionaire Bloomberg spending big on his run for president" vs "Billionaire Bloomberg spending big to defeat Trump"?

6/

IOW, if Bloomberg's anti-Trump ads are the same… and the money he spends to run them is the same… does the *framing* of Bloomberg's effort matter to the effectiveness of his anti-Trump message? 🤔

7/

Tbc, if Bloomberg announces for president, then afaik he'll truly be running for president.

This has simply been a few thoughts about why he might want to be a formal candidate for president regardless.

8/