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Dems unlikely to get Rep impeachment votes, even for those without re-election interests; motivated reasoning in partisan battle is enough to keep in line; trying to convert members through public pressure in polarized times doesn’t seem to work
honestgraft.com/2019/11/this-w…
Partisan media has direct effects on legislators, not only through voters, as they’re convinced message is playing well in sources not aligned with opposition; it also has indirect effects, by keeping up team identity & social pressure & charges of an unfair other side in caucus
On 1 hand, President’s party always defends him:
niskanencenter.org/the-electoral-…

On other, Dems had supportive testimony & mainstream coverage, with little counter-argument & no policy at stake; didn’t move Rep elites or voters; doesn’t bode well for “going public” to pass policy either
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More from @MattGrossmann see all

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Matt Grossmann
@MattGrossmann
Dems taking Reps’ traditional ideological approach, says @DouthatNYT
nytimes.com/2019/11/02/opi…

I would separate left-moving policy positions (certainly happening, overshooting but in parallel with a real public move) from increasingly ideological messaging, which I don’t see
1/3
Main messaging shifts from 2016 to 2020 Dem primaries actually move back toward Dem norms:
1) Warren selling Sanders policies in wonky & technocratic terms with stories of groups helped
2) All frontrunners focused on class 1st over race & gender, back from Clinton aberration
2/3
Meanwhile, even with Trump, Reps are running nationalized ideological campaigns, even in state races

Reps are perceiving Dems as running on socialism, but it’s mainly them running against it

Check out @RachelBitecofer flyer collection:
Read 3 tweets
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Matt Grossmann
@MattGrossmann
Despite few immediate policy diffs, there is key debate at stake in Sanders v Warren: whether to advance an ideological message for moving the US political & economic system leftward or defend liberal policies on technocratic & utilitarian grounds to help those in need now
1/n
Bernie makes several ideological arguments rare in the US (but not elsewhere):
- Government works better than the private sector
- US political & economic systems are worse than other comparable countries
- It’s government’s responsibility to redistribute wealth
2/n
- Capitalism is an inherent (not recent) failure
- Social issues are an upper class distraction from economic change
- US foreign policy is now an engine of moving policy rightward globally
- This is a coherent belief system that should be labeled an alternative ideology
3/n
Read 6 tweets
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Matt Grossmann
@MattGrossmann
Voters now conceptualize politics at higher levels, with more listing ideological concepts or at least 3 policy issues (wonks) in ANES likes/dislikes of the parties/candidates

Marty Wattenberg, The Changing Nature of Mass Belief Systems
1/n
 #APSA2019
convention2.allacademic.com/one/apsa/apsa1…
In 2016, Republicans (especially Trump voters) were less likely than usual to be coded as ideologues & Democrats (especially Sanders voters) were more likely to be ideologues, drastically reducing the partisan asymmetry

Marty Wattenberg data #APSA2019
tinyurl.com/yxc7qcz6
2 processes for increasing partisan-ideological sorting:
-Ideologues & wonks are becoming more sorted (below)
- Everyone is becoming less likely to be mis-sorted

Increasing educational attainment can account for 1/2 of the effect

Wattenberg #APSA2019
tinyurl.com/yxc7qcz6
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Alex Schiller
@alexdschiller
THREAD.

Uhhh... some questions for basically every single GOP MOC delivering the same talking points:

1. If the impeachment inquiry is being done inappropriately, why hasn't anyone cited the law or regulation that is being violated?
2. If we're just talking about precedent, is it weird to suddenly pick this one to be concerned with after a decade of smashing them? Should we ask Merrick Garland about it?
3. When during the preliminary investigations that led to Bill Clinton's impeachment was he given the opportunity to defend himself under due process?
Read 13 tweets
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Maya Wiley
@mayawiley
Of 235 #Dems in the House, 139 publicly support #impeachment investigation on #Ukraine allegations that #Trump personally & directly intervened in release of foreig#n aid $ to a “hot” war zone & raised investigating #Biden. Today I expect we will hear #Pelosi saying it’s time.
While the #MuellerReoort gave ample grounds for concern on #Trump campaign 271 contacts with #Russians, this is a case where #Trump admits undeniably dangerous behavior & obstructing Congressional oversight of it.
#Trump calls #Ukraine Pres 1 day after #Mueller testimony in Congress reduces #GOP fear of #impeachment. bit.ly/2llpbBS
Read 13 tweets
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Adam A. Fernandez
@AdamaEsq
A short thread on #impeachment.

I have pre-existing conditions—I fear my life & that of my friends being taken away.
I have close friends with DACA—I fear their right to be here being taken away.
I'm a Latino parent—I fear my child will be discriminated against worse than I was
I'm the survivor of an in-person death threat against me & my family, from a MAGA extremist who hated me just for who I am—I fear him or another carrying out those threats.

I'm an attorney—I fear the erosion of the rule of law.
I'm a patriot—I fear Russian interference in the 2020 election.

I'm a voting rights advocate—I fear a system is currently being created that will lead to permanent minority rule, & that that minority will use political power to permanently restricts the rights of the majority.
Read 20 tweets
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Richard 🌊 Spencer
@RichardBSpencer
We forget how much heat was on Trump in the first quarter of 2017: appointees were being investigated and resigning and mainstream liberals viewed him as utterly illigitmate. At the time, I thought an #impeachment hearing was likely, and that many Republicans would join in.
Things cooled off considerably for, as I see it, two fundamental reasons: The Syria strikes and Trump and the GOP’s mutual embrace.
The Syria strikes assured the Deep State (an often misused term, but a legit one) that Trump would pursue “business as usual” in American foreign policy; this was confirmed by an increase of troops in Afghanistan and more.
Read 11 tweets
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Puesto Loco™
@PuestoLoco
“The House Dem Caucus is not on a path to impeachment & that’s where Trump wants us to be” – @SpeakerPelosi. She calls on Trump’s family to have an “intervention” but refuses to use the House’s “intervention” tool: impeachment.
Home next week. Call your reps. #Impeachment
“We were getting about 2 to 1 calls that were opposing impeachment. Now the calls are 3 or 4 to 1 we need to be moving forward..it’s getting too out of hand. We’re getting closer & closer to that [impeachment] point.” – @RepKatieHill
“a 'growing majority' of Democrats think #Impeachment is 'inevitable.' “I think [ @SpeakerPelosi ] fully understands that – her caucus understands impeachment's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when"– @RepJohnYarmuth
cnn.com/2019/05/22/pol…
Read 7 tweets
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Joseph Britt
@Zathras3
Vigorous #impeachment discussion yesterday between polls and elections expert @NateSilver538 (con) and former Harry Reid person @AJentleson (pro). The subject is worth a thread.
2. As with most issues before Congress, substance and politics are closely related but distinguishable. As to substance, the argument -- persuasive to me -- is that obstruction of justice, contacts with Russians seeking to influence a US election, corruption and the rest...
3...will do mortal damage to American democracy if tolerated. Not proceeding toward impeachment proceedings means tolerating all of these things, though it is possible to deceive oneself on that point. The political argument @NateSilver538 makes is about American voters.
Read 27 tweets

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