Couple of nuggets I've just noticed in the cross-tabs to the most recent @DeltapollUK poll. Deltapoll usefully break their poll out by party/Brexit combinations - Con Remain, Lab Leave and so forth. Some interesting patterns there
@DeltapollUK Firstly, Labour Leave voters show a much greater willingness to back the Conservatives than Conservative Remainers show to back Labour - 26% of Lab Leavers currently favour Con vs just 2% of Con Remainers backing Lab.
@DeltapollUK Part of the difference is Con Remainers preferring Lib Dems, but even then there's a gap - 19% of Con Remainers go LD, and 2% Lab for a total of 21% switching to a Remain party vs 26% of Lab Leavers switching directly to Cons
@DeltapollUK Secondly, and contra much of what I've been saying here for a while, the poll does show evidence of greater Lab than Con losses to BXP. In part reflects fact BXP aren't standing in the seats where most Con Leavers live, but even allowing for this I was expecting greater Con loss
@DeltapollUK In fact, 26% of Lab Leavers currently backing BXP vs just 7% of Con Leavers (another 3% say they'll back UKIP). Even allowing for the fact that Con Leavers are a much bigger group, a difference this large would indeed mean BXP taking a bigger bite out of Lab than Con vote
@DeltapollUK That cld be critical in a number of Lab held Leave seats,if it holds up. It would suggest that *even though* most of the Lab vote is Remain and *even though* Con have far more voters who find BXP attractive, Lab are viewed *so negatively* now by Leave voters that they lose to BXP
@DeltapollUK Obviously, just one poll and these are quite small cross-breaks so usual strong caveats apply. But it *is* also consistent with the otherwise surprising constituency poll yesterday showing Lab miles behind in Grimsby
