I do wonder if, once the votes are all cast on December 12th, we will look back at that first Commons majority in favour of Johnson's deal as the turning point in this election, and the Brexit process
For Leave voters of all persusasions, the prospect of getting what they wanted enacted, after three 1/2 years of frustration and stasis, must be a hugely compelling one. Its a much better offer than "give me a mandate for yet more negotiations with no guaranteed outcome"
For Con Remain voters, who are much more inclined than other Remain voters to the "We don't like it, but we'll have to go along with it" view of Brexit, the idea of getting it out the way and moving on to other things is attractive, particularly as they are v anti-Corbyn
And an actually existing deal on the table proved a v effective way to defang Farage and the Brexit party. He tried early on to frame a deal which did most of what he wanted as "betrayal" but his heart wasn't in it, nor were his allies', and he folded.
I think that would be much les likely to happen if the campaign had been fought by Johnson on "trust me to negotiate a new deal"
The decisions (a) by opposition parties to deny Johnson an election the first time he asked and (b) by a minority of Lab MPs to back Johnson's deal, giving it a majority, may therefore be the moment things swung decisively to Cons and Brexit.
