Quick update on these findings now we have a new @DeltapollUK poll:
Lab Leavers: 31% now backing Con (up 5 on last week)
Con Remainers: 9% now backing Lab (up 7 on last week)
So Cons still doing better with Lab Leavers, but Lab picking up a little (2% last week did seem low)
Lab Leavers: 31% now backing Con (up 5 on last week)
Con Remainers: 9% now backing Lab (up 7 on last week)
So Cons still doing better with Lab Leavers, but Lab picking up a little (2% last week did seem low)
@DeltapollUK However, Lab is doing better among Leavers than a week ago because BXP has collapsed w/ this group - whereas last week BXP took 26% of Lab Leavers, this week it is *0%*. Highlights volatility of cross-tabs and suggests maybe I was my conclusion that BXP hurting Lab was too hasty
@DeltapollUK Indeed, the Brexit realignment effect this week looks much more balanced than last week:
31% of Con Remainers say they are switching (22% to LD, 9% to Lab), while 31% of Lab Remainers are switching to Con.
Cons gaining more directly, but Lab to LD may make sense in Con-LD seats
31% of Con Remainers say they are switching (22% to LD, 9% to Lab), while 31% of Lab Remainers are switching to Con.
Cons gaining more directly, but Lab to LD may make sense in Con-LD seats
Overall this is marginally better news for Lab than the same poll last week - they're not getting hurt by BXP and Cons now losing as much of their Remain vote as Lab losing from its Leave vote.
*But* direct Lab Leave to Con switching still substantial, could be decisive
*But* direct Lab Leave to Con switching still substantial, could be decisive
A direct Lab to Con switch counts double in Lab held Con targets - one off the Lab total, one on to the Con total. And Lab are still picking up relatively few Con Remainers to offset this.
If you'd like to inspect all the tables yourself, they are here:
deltapoll.co.uk/polls/general-…
deltapoll.co.uk/polls/general-…
@DeltapollUK Should read "31% Lab Leavers switching to Con" - I would delete but it would mess up the thread.
