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Important YouGov poll in Times using MRP constituency basis. Much better for Boris than 7 points. Has a Tory majority of 68
YouGov / Times MRP

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)
Tories will be desperate to play it down so people don’t think safe to vote for other parties/deprive @BorisJohnson of big majority - @theresa_may fate in 2017
Health warning: a lot of close battles in marginals. Could still change - though I doubt it will ENDS
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Excellent thread by @CER_Grant as always. A few additional macro points. The politics of the withdrawal/divorce were legacy defining issues for @JunckerEU & @donaldtusk. As such, it was guaranteed to command their full attention. Perhaps Merkel's too 1/
Will this be same for @vonderleyen & @CharlesMichel? Think future UK-EU relations will be imp, yes; but as one issue among many other equally if not more imp ones - eg Green New Deal; MFF & international profile of Euro. There'll also be possible unhelpful political distractions
What if Germany's Govt collapses next year? Or Salvini wins power in Italy? Besides other substantive policy priorities & political risks, it's also imp to note EU side is more divided on strategy over phase 2; debate between @EU_Commission & EU capitals over prioritisation 3/
Read 5 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Back to Brexit. That’s where @BorisJohnson wants to get in rest of election campaign. PM tells The Sun: “I just really worry that people aren’t focusing on the real political crisis and the reason why we had to do this thing.” Concedes campaign “has gone through various phases.”
Reflects private Tory fears that poll lead could narrow further without Brexit in the headlines. Problem is it might not be easy after London Bridge attack & with @realDonaldTrump in town 2/
But we think London Bridge attack is unlikely to have same political impact on election as those in 2017; Johnson’s pre-emptive action, including urgent review of 74 other convicted terrorists released on licence, will likely cushion him against backlash @theresa_may suffered 3/
Read 6 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Wanted to build on my thread yesterday regarding internal EU debate on phase 2 #Brexit negotiations with some views from Paris. French sources also say that the optimum outcome would be a system of post-Brexit accords (unwilling to use word treaty) between the EU27 and UK 1/
But there is caution in Paris about: 1) @BorisJohnson real intentions if he wins on 12 Dec; 2) possible bust-ups on fishing rights and/or US trade 2/
.@EmmanuelMacron vision of a new European architecture – first sketched at Sorbonne in 2017; renewed/revised in his @TheEconomist @PedderSophie interview – already implies a formal relationship with a UK outside the EU treaties. How this might happen is open for debate 3/
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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Hilary #ABTV - all 3 versions
@atatimelikethis
I spent some time today out of London talking to what politicians call, "the common voter".

ie. My family, their friends at a party 😂

All worried about #GE19
In a marginal

Saw 2 big swing groups 🔄 that we are failing to reach

FOR RECOMMENDATIONS SKIP TO END. SEGMENTS NEXT
✅ 1 Used to be Tory 🔄
"Natural 1 nation Conservatives" angry and confused. They refuse to elect ERG/Boris, they're spitting.

I've never seen a tory lady of a certain age spit. Not nice.

The anger and contempt for their previous party incredible. "Wreckers" is their name.
✅ 2 UtbT 🔄
Lab don't be happy.
They won't vote for Corbyn ever, and they fear McDonnell more. "The architect, the real communist who wants to break it all".

Oddly entitled tho. Find labour scary, but demand attention "why didn't they find someone electable we could vote for"
Read 30 tweets
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Joe Marshall
@Joe_Marshall0
Quick thread on Saturday in Parliament:
- What the votes mean
- The key parliamentary groupings
- What happens next
First, passing a motion to approve the deal is only step 1 of the process. If passed, it will do 2 things:
1. Remove the Benn Act requirement to request an extension
2. Pave the way for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) to put the international agreement into domestic law 2/
But getting approval will be difficult.
- The Government is over 40 seats short of a majority 3/
Read 18 tweets
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Anthony Wells
@anthonyjwells
A longish thread about trying to explain the differences in party support - primarily Labour - in the polls.
It is often very difficult to get to the bottom of the differences between polls. There is rarely one big, easy simple answer, it's normally a bit of lots of little, different to explain things. Hence stupid & simple explanations prosper.
One current cause seems to be different approaches to past vote weighting. Most pollsters* weight by how people voted at the last election (ensuring that the sample has 44% people who voted Conservative in 2017, 41% Labour in 2017 and so on)
Read 18 tweets
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Lewis Baston
@lewis_baston
I am not expecting the Conservatives to be ‘wiped out’ in the local elections. Incremental losses from a good set of results for them in 2015 but not doomsday.
1. Nobody else is positively popular. The last wipeout in this set of seats was 1995 at the crest of the Blair wave.
2. National polling shows Con losing support to options that won’t be available in the local elections. Most English council elections will be between Con, Lab, Lib Dem and possibly some Independents and Greens. Trad Con voters will probably revert to Con (but not in EP vote)
Read 9 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
British Social Attitudes Survey author Prof John Curtice: its results, corroborated by polls “is enough to raise doubts about whether, two and half years after the original ballot, leaving the EU necessarily continues to represent the view of a majority of the British public”
hasn’t been a single poll in almost a year now with Leave lead. 70 polls since GE17 show only two (+1) leads, 5 Ties, 63 Remain leads, recent avg plus 7/8 remain.

Hypothesis: General Election 2017 was a structural break in polled support for Remain/Leave

Via @britainelects
Eg compare the year before GE2017 with past year:
Read 6 tweets
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WeThePeople #ForTheMany #DangerousHero #JC4PM2019
@gaurangmorjaria
#poll If there was a Snap General Election, who would you vote for?

(For other parties, please vote them in comments)

Please RT once Voted! 😃
1997: Blair 13.5mn votes
1997-2015: Blairites/ Others lost 180 seats & 5mn voters
2017: Corbyn 12.8mn votes/ Gained 32

2019:

add first time voters (75% of those who vote, vote for Labour)

Subtract 2% of the population, 80% of whom vote Tories!

Labour Landslide on the cards!
Lab’s share of vote could be 14.5+mn

Once we take into account first time voters- 16 or under at 2017

first time voters -never voted before, disenchanted by Blair years whilst

removing Tory support -loss of voters due to old age

=> Lab will gain 100+ seats from Tories alone
Read 32 tweets

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