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PM couldn’t tell @NickFerrariLBC how many trade deals are ready to go... and seems to be focusing on lamb exports ... 94% of UK lamb exports go to EU.
PM “absolutely guarantees” Brexit by end January “if I get a working majority”
PM says he “will do whatever we can” to help WASPI women...
“Read my lips we will not raise taxes on income, on VAT or National Insurance.. for the lifetime of the Parliament”... PM has just made a far stronger claim to @LBC caller than is in the Tory manifesto... which only promised not to “raise the rate” of income tax/VAT/NI
PM bit hesitant there on “cut” or “review” to business rates... in official costing document it is just a temporary one year discount worth £320m for retailers and then only £10m a year total.... vs receipts of £30bn...

Councils increasingly reliant on biz rates for social care.
Interesting answer to from PM saying as Mayor he was against developers cladding buildings with insulation, ie well before Grenfell...
More fake news from @mrjamesob who used a ridiculous analogy describing Gove at C4 as like him turning up at Old Trafford and getting to play.... James must know he would definitely get straight into the midfield.
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More from @faisalislam see all

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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Decent set of jobs numbers given sluggish economy... unemployment stays low and employment high. But wage growth dips, and vacancies in economy fall below 800k...
Average weekly earnings, real terms, still just below pre-crisis peak over a decade ago...
** WASPI women again cited by ONS as one of principal drivers of rise in official employment numbers...

Of 309k (1%) increase in total employment over past year

+235k women which includes
+165k women aged 50+ (incl a 10% increase in women 65+) of which
+116k women aged 50-64
Read 3 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Sterling loses all gains from before GE poll day vs $ and euro as PM decides to legislate against his Government’s room for manoeuvre on extending UK-EU trade talks beyond next year, as an attempt to leverage a quick deal.. raising chance of WTO terms in a year:
£ still v markedly up since October deal/ August peak of No Deal rhetoric...but extra gains since Election Day reversed pretty quickly.

Question for sluggish real UK economy is whether business investment will be “unleashed” given decision to prolong chances of WTO terms with EU
Worth reserving judgement on whether extension actually made illegal, until new WA Bill published.

That would disarm part of agreed Treaty during ratification - not just a matter for UK.

If it is just Section 30 being taken out, Govt gets more power to extend, no Commons veto..
Read 3 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
revised Brexit agreement will now get passed before next month - so new Northern Ireland protocol too.

That means Irish Sea checks, NI de facto in Single Market, rebatable tariffs, diverted traffic, new infrastructure somewhere..

Vg overview from Tony C
My own story from earlier in week in similar vein on early planning for the form of those NI checks in GB...

Bottom line - all made far easier if UK-EU stays tariff/quota free, which EU says is subject to proper Level Playing Field. Also could form say a common veterinary area. Both of those might get in way of depth of a US deal though.

Choices ahead. For the PM to make.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU views Johnson’s intention to legislate end date of Dec 2020 on EU-UK trade negotiations as sabre rattling. PM broke his key red line line of avoiding post #Brexit division between GB and NIreland in divorce deal. EU expects he’ll eventually back down in trade talks too /1
EU is massive trading power on world stage so Brussels believe it holds most of the cards in negotiations. Clearly EU will have to compromise too. It’s insistence the UK ‘can only have off the shelf agreement’ ie a copy of its deals with Japan/ Canada is unrealistic /2
UK is different: bigger, closer. EU knows this but expectation in Brussels is that by far the bigger compromises will be made by UK and the faster Johnson insists on getting the trade deal done, the more the EU will try to use his self-imposed time constraint against him /3
Read 4 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU views PMs letter accompanying his formal #Brexit extension request - saying that he doesn’t actually want an extension- as a gimmick aimed at a domestic audience. As far as EU law is concerned: a formal request from the UK prime minister, is a formal request full stop /1
EU leaders not rushing to make decisions. Instead they watch events in Westminster carefully. If their newly negotiated #Brexit deal is approved by the majority of MPs - as the PM promised them it would be - then possibly no extension will be needed OR /2
Only a short one maybe to allow for necessary legislation to be completed. If this is the case, EU leaders won’t think twice about granting this short extension. They may even approve it by writing rather than on person at an emergency #Brexit summit. Spoiler alert../3
Read 12 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Effectively -despite all the noise - the state of #Brexit negotiations has NOT really changed in last three days or so:
i) Much as there is huge political will in EU to get Brexit deal done.. /1
EU leaders do NOT want to be hurried into making a new deal to fit Boris Johnson’s timetable. Has to be something they can live with - that doesn’t cause potential probs for single market/ NIreland peace process in years to come /2
ii) This is very difficult to ‘fudge’! EU demanding not ‘good intentions’ as to how single market and peace process should be safeguarded on island of Ireland after Brexit but rather a ‘legally operative text’ /3
Read 14 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU politicians welcome the serious tone used by PM in Dublin today when spoke of importance of making deal with EU, avoiding no deal #Brexit BUT EU contacts tell me they await a change in actions not just rhetoric /1
The PMs main #Brexit envoy, David Frost, expected back in Brussels on Weds. So far EU says he’s been discussing reducing backstop commitments rather than proposing st that could realistically replace the backstop /2
Government floated idea of all-Ireland agricultural area but EU don’t consider this a serious proposal bc only covers 30% of cross-border trade. EU will see on Weds if PM’s negotiator brings additional ideas. If not EU diplomats say it’ll be clear PM not seriously negotiating /3
Read 6 tweets
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Nick Vucic
@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
Read 125 tweets
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liz gerard #FBPE
@gameoldgirl
Little #brexit thread
We’ve been fed ‘deal or no deal’ and are now told that May has a ‘deal’ in her pocket.
She hasn’t.
Even if she gets it past her cabinet and parliament, even if it is endorsed by the other 27, she still doesn’t have a ‘deal’
What she has is a boarding pass.
She’s agreed the fare and has reached the airport.
But we - and she - still don’t have a clue about what lies behind the departure gate.
Read 6 tweets

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