Thread by @LibertyBlitz

I suspect we will witness a strong desire for people to leave extremely dense metropolitan areas over the next 5-10 years.

I understand how many soulless economists want the opposite. They want a future where human skill and capital is even more increasingly concentrated in dense megalopolises, but I suspect the opposite may occur. I think it's in our best interest to ensure the opposite occurs.

I see three main drivers to this decentralization/migration of humans away from density and tension into breathable space and livability over 2020-2030.

1) Failure and decay of current macro paradigm.
2) Demographics
3) Lifestyle.

The first sort of goes without saying, so I won't address it here. The second and third may be under-appreciated and connect together. I'm pretty familiar with big city life having being born in NYC and lived there for 28 years. I've lived outside of the big city last 9 years.

Millennials are on the cusp of surpassing boomers as the largest generation in the U.S. It's well known that millennials have a paltry share of total wealth, even compared to prior generations at this stage of life. The implications of this are enormous at all levels.

The midpoint of the millennial generation is now entering their 30s. The difference between someone in their 20s and their 30s is extraordinary. It's no coincidence that I left NYC for good in my early 30s. Different stages of life tend to require different lifestyles/desires.

Not only do millennials have less wealth (mainly due to the criminal handling of the 2008/09 bailouts), but they aren't having kids at the same rate. Birth rates in the U.S. are at a 32-year low. Do they really not want families or is it economic?
npr.org/2019/05/15/723…

I dispute the notion there's something "different" about millennials when it comes to family formation. I think the main driver is this generation's felt financially insecure/not independent pretty much their whole lives. But we're at the point where choices need to be made.

Here's the conversation I see happening amongst couples in their early 30s with no kids (but who want). They will give up on the dream of making it big in the big city and figure let's take what we've got and try somewhere much cheaper. This is a logical move.

When I was in my early 30s I was single with no kids, but knew I eventually wanted a family. Growing up in NYC, I intimately knew what a nightmare it'd be to have a family and a livable lifestyle there. You need to work like a dog and earn a ton of money to make it worthwhile imo

The big city in your 20s is a no brainer, I get it and I did it. But the largest generation in the country is now fully starting into its 30s and that'll change the country in countless ways including migration patterns, which I expect to really get going soon.

Finally, I think people should see such moves as a counter-cultural statement and even subversive in a way. The power structure desires concentration of capital and human talent in the "elite" urban districts. By decentralizing yourself, you commit a small scale act of dissent.

Your capital and skills can have an outsized impact in a small city (100-200,000). Why employ those in NYC or SF? Go to a smaller city with potential that's livable. Maybe closer to your family or where you grew up. Give it a try at least. I suspect you'll be happy. I was and am

The big city life sells you a dream. You know how many people I knew on Wall Street said they would work hard for 10-15 years and then retire move somewhere else after? Half the people said this, almost none of them execute. It's a lie. Get out there and explore frontier cities.

The big city largely traps you will money chasing, ego chasing and endless entertainment. Often cuts you off from nature. These things are part of life, but shouldn't be all consuming. If you're in your 30s and have an inkling this isn't the life for you, do something about it.

I also agree with the idea that “If you get bored, you are boring.”