Let’s revisit the #JobsReport, comparing the number of jobs which have been added to the US economy during Trump’s term with those of other Presidents in recent decades and combining it with the size of the US labor force at that time.
Why? Let me explain.
#SaturdayThoughts
Why? Let me explain.
#SaturdayThoughts
The fact that the US has added 6.6 million jobs over the first 34 months of his term sounds good. And it is.
But in Reagan’s 2nd term, at the same time point, it was 7 million.
In Clinton’s 1st term it was 8.4 mil.
In Carter’s term it was 9.9 mil.
With a smaller labor force.
But in Reagan’s 2nd term, at the same time point, it was 7 million.
In Clinton’s 1st term it was 8.4 mil.
In Carter’s term it was 9.9 mil.
With a smaller labor force.
In the first 34 months of Carter’s term, 02/1977-11/79, 9.883 million jobs were added to US payrolls (compared to the 6.557 million added under Trump from 02/2017-11/19).
And the number of people in the labor force in 1977-79 averaged only 63% of what it is now.
And the number of people in the labor force in 1977-79 averaged only 63% of what it is now.
In the first 34 months of Clinton’s second term, 02/1997-11/99, 9.107 million jobs were added to US payrolls (compared to the 6.557 million added under Trump from 02/2017-11/19).
And the number of people in the labor force in 1997-99 averaged only 85% of what it is now.
And the number of people in the labor force in 1997-99 averaged only 85% of what it is now.
In the first 34 months of Clinton’s first term, 02/1993-11/95, 8.383 million jobs were added to US payrolls (compared to the 6.557 million added under Trump from 02/2017-11/19).
And the number of people in the labor force in 1993-95 averaged only 85% of what it is now.
And the number of people in the labor force in 1993-95 averaged only 85% of what it is now.
In the first 34 months of Obama’s second term, 02/2013-11/15, 7.562 million jobs were added to US payrolls (compared to the 6.557 million added under Trump from 02/2017-11/19).
And the number of people in the labor force in 2013-15 averaged 96% of what it is now.
And the number of people in the labor force in 2013-15 averaged 96% of what it is now.
In the first 34 months of Johnson’s elected term, 02/1965-11/67, 7.121 million jobs were added to US payrolls (compared to the 6.557 million added under Trump from 02/2017-11/19).
And the number of people in the labor force in 1965-67 averaged 47% of what it is now.
And the number of people in the labor force in 1965-67 averaged 47% of what it is now.
In the first 34 months of Reagan’s second term, 02/1985-11/87, 7.000 million jobs were added to US payrolls (compared to the 6.557 million added under Trump from 02/2017-11/19).
And the number of people in the labor force in 1985-87 averaged 73% of what it is now.
And the number of people in the labor force in 1985-87 averaged 73% of what it is now.
The only President in the at 55 which saw fewer jobs created than Trump during the first 34 months in no recession was occurring was President George W. Bush during his second term (02/2005-11/07). And the labor force then only had 93% as many people as it has now.
(And of course, the period of the first 34 months of George W. Bush’s second term, 02/2005-11/07, ended in the eve of the Great Recession, which started in 12/07. So this likely affected Bush’s job numbers).
So here is a summary:
The best predictor of how job growth will go for ANY President is whether or not a recession occurs during their term in office.
None of the Presidents with the most jobs created had to deal with a recession during their term.
Those with the least did.
The best predictor of how job growth will go for ANY President is whether or not a recession occurs during their term in office.
None of the Presidents with the most jobs created had to deal with a recession during their term.
Those with the least did.
In the past 55 years, almost every President who didn’t have a recession occur in the first 34 months of their term saw more jobs created than Trump has (6.6 mil) at the same point.
Bush (2/2005-11/07) was the only exception and the Great Recession was just around the corner.
Bush (2/2005-11/07) was the only exception and the Great Recession was just around the corner.
And all of the Presidents who saw more than the 6.6 million jobs that have been added to payroll by this point in Trump’s term saw more jobs added at a time when the US population and the total number of people of working age in the population was lower than it is now.
So, the #JobsReport is good. And 6.6 million jobs added in the first 34 months of a President’s term in office is also a good thing.
But looking at it and comparing it to everybody else, it’s just okay.
But looking at it and comparing it to everybody else, it’s just okay.
Don’t believe me? Well, this is a good opportunity for you to check for yourself (which you should anyway, whenever anybody tells you anything).
All of the jobs numbers are publicly available.
All of the jobs numbers are publicly available.
* in the last 55 years is what I intended to say.
