2019/2020 Bowl Thread:
Quick disclaimer: suspensions are coming. More coaching changeups are coming. Important players are going to sit out. Bowls are starting to mean less, and in my opinion, tougher to handicap in the early days. It doesn't stop me from trying, but there will be a mix of good & bad.
Buffalo v. Charlotte (+5/57) Game played in Bahamas. Means we should expect a good bit of wind. Both teams bowling which means a lot to both programs. Don't see a motivational edge for either team. No pronounced coaching edges, both guys are going to be in line for bigger jobs.
Don't see either team having players sit. Perhaps Charlotte's talented DE Highsmith who will be an NFL player. He would be a significant loss. Buffalo has an excellent OL. They are top 25 in run blocking and even better pass blocking, but they dont pass much. They dont need to.
They are top 10 rush offense and bottom 10 pass offense. Charlotte's DL and rush defense is bottom ten-ish nationally. The Buff OL against Char DL is amongst the largest mismatches of the entire bowl slate. It prob is the biggest in any game, actually. Highsmith sits, it def is.
The other problem for Charlotte is that while their pass defense is much better, much is a result of them getting run over instead of passed on, but when they do give up pass completions, they tend to be gashes against teams that dont often gash. Good news is Buff pass off
is a team that doesn't gash, so something's gotta give. In his last game Buff RB Jaret Patterson ran for 26-298-6 (NOT A TYPO). He will hope to exceed that here. Looking on other side of ball, Charlotte is much more offensively balanced. They are a run-first team, but can pass.
That's good news, because they will need to. Buffalo's rush defense is top five nationally, and gives up less than 100 ypg. They are above average in pass defense and sack the QB like a top 10 unit. Charlotte OL doesnt have any weak spots, they run block well and pass block well.
It should be a good trench matchup on that side with good on good, unlike when Buff offense is on field. Charlotte QB is dual-threat. He has some skill outisde at WR, but rarely has to use them. He will here. Will wind impact throwing much? TBD, but prob at least slightly.
If wind has a major impact, then Buffalo could do ugly things to them. It's a MAC secondary, so guys getting behind the defense with regularity wouldn't be a surprise at all. I can't ignore the edge Buffalo has on the ground. I've played both the over 55.5 and Buffalo -4.5.
These conf are regularly pitted against one another & the conditions exist on the island each year, & that hasn't stopped this from getting pointsy. A team has scored 35+ in 4 of 5 years of existence. Fun game to kick us off, slow pace is concern on total, but I'll go 35-27 Buff
Kent State v. Utah State (-8.5/65) Game played in Dallas at Frisco Bowl. First bowl trip for KSU since 2012, second since 1972. 0-3 all time, chance to achieve history. Utah State third bowl in row, romped N Texas last season. I think we can rationally assume KSU most motivated
As far as coaching goes, I'm big fan of Sean Lewis. I'm not a fan of what Gary Anderson did this season at Utah State. They turned over a lot from a good team, but they were very underwhelming. I think that there is a coaching advantage for KSU to couple with the motivation.
KSU balanced on offense, but ground game is most effective. Theyve got dual threat QB. They don't protect him well at all but they ran block effectively. USU slightly below avg sacking the QB. They are better stopping the pass than the run, and most opponents prefer to run v them
Overall the rush defense isnt terrible on a YPC basis, but they are 100+ nationally in rush yards allowed. Theyve given up nearly 300 rushing yards in both of their last two against Boise and New Mexico. KSU gonna run it until they stop it and if they come up too much, this is
the Baylor offense, so they are gonna take shots and try to pop em deep. This will be the fastest tempo offense they've faced since the opener against Wake, where they didn't manage it particularly well. As far as the USU offense goes, they went from top 40 rush off LY to bottom
30 rush off this year. Thats unfortunate against KSU rush defense which is about as bad as there is in CFB. While USU has been bad in that area, they have some explosive players and they are going to exceed their average. KSU pass def better statistically, but thats bc teams
dont need to pass as much which the way they can run. Their YPP against pass is awful. Here's where things get interesting. I like Kent State getting two scores as a standalone wager, regardless of who USU has at QB. The upshot of this bet is that Ags QB Jordan Love could sit out
He's been rumored to be considering the NFL or a grad transfer. If he plays, it would actually help bolster his stock because he could have a bunch of success, but playing in a meaningless bowl game if he's considering the league and getting top 100 grades from the advisory board
then it would make sense for him to sit. It would have been smart if he decided to sit out forego this whole season and go to the league. There would be much less doubt surrounding his capabilities, but he now has two bad years out of three on his resume. I don't know what he
will do, but I do feel confident in saying that his backup isnt likely to be an NFL Draft pick. Losing a multi-year starter at QB for a G5 program can often be an offensive death knell for a season. I was gonna take KSU +8 but waited. Then it went to 9 &I decided to wait for 10
W rumors today of Love poss being checked out, I figured it unlikely, and so far I was right. It got to 9.5 and is now down to 8.5 and prob gonna be one score very soon. I took the 9 this evening and also locked in KSU +265 ML for 1/3 of the +9. Runnin dog. Ill go Flashes 34-31.
CMU v. SDSU (-3.5/41) Not a game that I've spent much time on. Two of the least impressive bowl teams. CMU 3-8 all time in bowls, last played in '17. SDSU perennial bowlers, lost 27-0 to Ohio LY. CMU has only played a few good defenses this season and they havent done great.
0, 12, 20, 21 are their outputs in those games. This is third best overall defense that they will face, but best of G5. SDSU games are about as consistent as possible, they are incredibly low scoring. 10 of their 12 games have featured 41 or less. They had two wild ones w 48 & 44
which is the amount that CMU scored by themselves in nearly half of their games. I tend to think that they are held in check here as SDSU did to nearly every opponent and also what CMU managed against quality defenses. SDSU elite rush defense which is where CMU thrives.
They can throw it around some, but they are a running team, when they are at their best. Buffalo is comparable G5 rush defense, CMU ran for 28-73-1 but threw it 38 times and achieved moderate success in a blowout loss. The problem for SDSU is their offense is brutal. One of prem
rush offenses in recent years is now a bottom five worst rush offense, and the problem is that they still dont pass well, which they never really have. CMU rush def is better than their pass defense. Theyve allowed some big air yardages to some pretty poor pass offenses.
I'm not sure that I see a huge motivational or coaching edge in the game. Backing the MAC can be dangerous in bowls, but this years MWC isn't something that I'm scared of. Not great matchup for CMU though, I am not about to lay points with SDSU under any circumstance. 17-13 Aztec
Liberty v. Ga So (-4.5/60.5) First ever bowl trip for Liberty, this is big deal. Ga So third-ever bowl game, undefeated in first two. I think Liberty is the more motivated team, but GaSo shouldn't be disinterested, by any means. I generally like backing option teams in bowl games
Despite conventional wisdom that teams have many weeks to prep, it doesn't seem to matter much. Liberty saw option last year and Army had 500+ yards and 38 points. Their rush defense is terrible, pass defense much more a strength. They shouldn't stop Ga So. Liberty offense good
They are a pass first offense and have an NFL WR in AGG. Theyve played some terrible defenses this year. There are two FCS foes and six other teams that rank bottom 25 or worse nationally. Ga So defense is in top four non terrible defenses faced. Lib scored 35, 24, 27 v other 3.
Ga So has been vulnerable against the good pass off theyve faced. 55, 35, 49, and 38 allowed. I think the probability of Ga So having defensive success is greater than Liberty hanging a big number like that. I think ground games tend to travel better in games like this, esp
against a terrible rush defense. I can't ignore that edge for Ga So, and how poorly Liberty defended it last season. New staff, but I don't have any confidence. I think the total has gotten driven too high as well, but I've only taken Ga So -5 so far. I'll go GS 34-24.
SMU @ FAU (+3/70) I took SMU PK, it's one of my three favorite sides of the bowl card. I'll start in the beginning, when I saw Dykes step in on short notice to coach SMU in the '17 Frisco Bowl where they got boat raced 51-10. I thought the Dykes era would be a disaster. It isn't.
This is second chance for many of players to avenge loss, they missed last yr. I think they will be motivated. I think FAU is a candidate for the least motivated team of bowl season. This feels impossible, aside from Hawaii bowls, but FAU plays at their home stadium 2nd yr in row
Last season the demolished Akron (!!!!!) 50-3 (😂). Florida athletes against MAC DBs is how that happens. The biggest difference this year, is that Lane Kiffin is gone. He's taken the best staffers with him. I can't see them caring here. It's a terrible situation for them.
FAU has interim coach with Tag being hired. That means Weiss is the presumable play caller, and I think thats gonna be a lot more challenging without Kiff oversight. It seems Spencer is likedf, but I think the totality of the circumstances here create situational edge for SMU
The FAU defense is above average, no big holes. They can't run well, but more effective passing. They are going to have success on offense even if its less than with Kiff. The SMU rush defense is good, their pass defense is the problem. While FAU doesnt have great WRs, anyone
can have success against SMU's cellar pass defense. FAU prob sits their best player, TE Harrison Bryant, who just won the best TE award and could start NFL Draft prep. Big loss if he doesnt go. I think SMU offense is going to be too much though. CUSA is a pretty terrible conf TY
I think an upper tier AAC v upper tier CUSA is a big mismatch in favor of the AAC. The amount of speed and skill that SMU posseses is unlike anything FAU has seen since Ohio State. If Kiffin stayed and this was a meaningful game, I would take SMU much smaller, but the situation
warrants a big position from me. I think this could be a really fun shootout. I'll go with SMU 45-34
FIU v. Arkansas St (-2.5/62.5) One of the least appealing games of bowl season to me. ASU regular bowlers lost last two. Third bowl in row for FIU, won last year. No big coaching or motivational edges that I see. ASU is all pass offense, they do nothing else well on off or def.
Problem for them is the only thing that FIU does above average is defend pass, they are actually as good in that area as Ark St is on offense. When I look at teams theyve faced, they havent been challenged with the pass catchers that Ark St has, and that includes U of Miami.
I don't really have much of an opinion on what happens. I hope to not watch a second of the game. I don't have anything more to say. 34-31 Redwolves
Washington v. Boise (+3.5/50) Great matchup. Coach Pete final game against the program he built. Think both teams will be focused, but Boise will have all their guys playing while Washington will have their LT and star TE sit. Those are big losses.
Boise's 36 PPG is about as unimpressive as possible. Any team that played a measure of defense gave them issues. They finished year poorly, with 350 yards v Col St and Hawaii. Safe to say Washington with a month is gonna be a diff beast. Boise run blocking OL has been great.
I think they are going to have issues moving Wash off ball and I dont think highly enough of their passing game, primarily their passer they are using right now, even though they have good WRs, to do much damage to Wash. Coach Pete lost last three bowls and think he goes out w W
Harsin 3-1 in bowls, most notably when he ripped out my heart and stomped on it in the '17 Vegas bowl. Eason playing in bowl so no concern about the offense changing a bunch. Not that they were great, but Boise pass defense is more vulnerable than rush. Huge STs edge for Wash
The main thing I like is the situational, but I've been wanting to find a time to fade Boise and got it with a short number on Wash -3. I think the Huskies get it done 30-20.
UAB v. App St (-16.5/48) Took over 44.5 in vegas at open. Attractive to me mainly because I think Josef has a chance to get there on their own. It's not likely, but with low 40 CFB totals, I like to go over a good bit in that instance. UAB is bad. They benefited from
a terrible schedule. A capable offense in FAU just hung 600 yards and 49 points on them last week while Lane was touring the bible belt. They havent seen many capable offense but they will here. UAB was without their QB1 for a stretch this season, so off numbers are a bit light.
Both teams are going to be well coached, likely UAB is more motivated as App St is the best G5 team but is playing in a toilet bowl. I think the coaching change actually helps though in the short term. The players love the new HC who was an internal hire. I think they play 4 him
Appy has played some bad defenses their last four but gotta consider they scored 56, 35, 48, and 45 points. UAB raw defensive numbers are good but adjust for comp level and you see they are an average defense. They have a QB thats a gamer that will compete and make some plays.
In order to cash the current total, I think UAB needs to score 14. I think they can and will. App avg giving up a TD more than that PG. Will be below average number of snaps, but it shouldn't be an issue with a low total like this, unless we see to many FGs or empty poss in RZ
I think it's likely that App covers and it goes over. The last three teams with DT QBs and some ability in run game scored 24, 27, and 38 on App. I think UAB gets less, but it's enough, 38-17 Josef.
