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Week 2 SEC & ACC Thread:
Wake @ Rice (+19/58.5) Two played last year and Wake won 56-24. Deceptive scoreline though. Only 414-370 yardage edge for Wake, but 6.8-4.9 YPP edge. 137 plays so pace wasn't great, mainly due to Rice hogging it & Wake hitting big plays. Dortch 4 TDs w Hartman at QB n first start
Wake now has better QB and realize what capable of in air. They were still 17-20-243-4-1 last year, but that should be higher this year. Wake won great battle last week. Defense still rough, run game is bleh, but they are gonna go fast and stress teams via air and w QB run game
Last season, Rice's pass defense was bottom 5 in the nation. Only defended 8 passes last week against Army, now they get the total polar opposite offense in terms of pace and scheme. Rice rush defense appears to be strength again. We will see soon on pass def, I think not great
Rice should have more offensive success this week against a bad defense, but Wake should really rip them. Newman rightfully the top DFS QB, he should have big game. Opposites in pace, but teams offenses matchup well against defense. Played Wake -18 and over 55.5. 44-20 Wake.
Bill & Mary @ UVA (-34.5/43.5) Big mismatch. WM coached by former Hoo HC, MIke London. Installed new offense. Here is gist: 'The “Go-Go” offense emphasizes up-tempo play and numerous play options. First, the offense plays very quickly which allows them to keep defenses on their
toes and put up points in a hurry — UVA struggled w Pitt up-tempo pace at the end of the 1H Saturday. Second, due to the strange positioning of the running backs, the offense can go in many different directions — including quick passes, handoffs and pitches — on any given play.'
Bill & mary aren't much of a threat to score on an elite defense, but their quick tempo is going to mean more opportunities for UVA to score. Total opened 40.5 in the inefficient, low-limit market. I've bet the over at several numbers as it bounces around. UVA should come v close
to cashing the over themselves. This is a good game for the Hoos offense to get off, after being shut down a week ago by Pitt. It was a v deceptive 30 points. 310 yards on 67 snaps - 4.6 YPP. UVA should be able to rep some younger guys this game. VT beat them 62-17 LY. 45-7 Hoos
Ohio @ Pitt (-5/54.5) Ohio offense was as to be expected last week against Rhode Island. 467 yards on 60 plays. I still have big questions about how their OL will be after being elite LY and losing bunch of good players. Unclear if they have a Papi White on perimeter to bail them
Pitt's offense was more up-tempo last week under Whipple (former UMass coach). They ran 71 plays but an elite UVA defense held them to 263 total yards. They should have much easier sledding here against a defense that should be considered below average by ACC standards.
Their rush defense was just okay last year, but much like the way Pitt has been plagued in recent year, their pass defense would let them down for big plays. Rhode Island had way too much offensive success on Ohio LW than they prob should have. 375 yards on 65 snaps - Woof!
Pitt faces another dual-threat QB in Rourke. They held up pretty well against Twerkins 🕺🏿so that bodes well for them here against a less worth adversary. Game should be played at an average, perhaps slightly below-average pace, assuming Pitt continues to go faster this year.
Pitt and Pickett should have some opportunities to hit some go balls against slow, unathletic MAC DBs. Ohio and Solich actually played UVA LY amidst a brewing hurricane and lost 45-31. That was only game Ohio went up in class LY. Pass for me: Pitt 30-24
ODU @ VT (-28.5/56) ODU was about this size dog when they beat VT 49-35 LY. Unfortunately, it appears we need to forget last year's offense for them. They were a sneaky-good air-raid-ish off under LaRussa w 2 big, dominant WRs outside that just owned smaller G5 defenders.
Their off was uninspiring in W1 against Norfolk. They went w dual-threat JUCO QB Stone Smartt. He was bleh in opener. They won 24-21 but it was an evenly played game. ODU stalled out on offense after the 1Q and trailed with 5 min to play. Perspective: Liberty beat NS 52-17 LY
VT should be angry here, both to avenge LY loss, and also to avenge the loss to BC last week, where they couldnt stay out of their own way. Qb Ryan Willis made bonehead play after bone head play. If he was just decent, they probably win that game. 5 TOs and a -4 TO finish LW.
VT should totally shut down the run and it appears that is what ODU may want to do, both with Smartt's skill set, and also the absence of diff makers on perimeter. Eric Kumah should pace the WRs again, and should be motivated against his former VT. Seems to be some bad blood
It's fair to assume that VT does a bunch of scoring, and the game could play a little pacey with ODU trailing and needing to air it out. I don't know how much success they will have, and is why I've passed to this point. No conviction. I had this circled LW as an over spot
but ODU's poor offensive performance last week could be indicative of some issues that may not be easily correctable in this game as they go way up in class. Under has taken money, which I don't agree with. If it gets bet down more, I may go over. 45-16 Hokies get their revenge.
Vandy @ Purdue (-7/56) Both teams coming off of deceptive week one games. Vandy lost 30-6 to UGA. Dawgs doubled up the Dores - 479 - 225 yardage, UGA 63 plays to Vandy's 62. That's a 7.6 - 3.6 YPP edge. Very bad first start for transfer QB Riley Neal. He threw for 3.5 YPA
Lipscomb and Pinkney each had 2-11-0 and 3-8-0 receiving. The whole offense was Vaughn, and that wasn't enough. Things will surely be easier this week against a far less daunting Boiler Maker defense. Purdue lost 34-31 to Nevada with a first time starting QB. 81 and 77 plays run.
UNR was 30-52-295-3-0 (5.7) passing & 25-109-1 (4.4) rushing with a long run of 12. Purdue threw for 34-52-423-4-2 (8.1) and 29-96-0 rushing with a long of 13. Purdue was fairly dominant in the 1H, but they collapsed in the 2H. They turned it over a bunch and stopped feeding RoMo
They finished -5 in TOs and lost by 3 on 56 yard FG at the end. Using five factors principles that states a TO is worth roughly five points, that contextualizes how flukely this game was. Using 2013 CFB data, 1.6% of games that season finished w a team +5 or greater in TO margin
The team that was +5 or greater won 100% of the games played with average margin of victory of 30.0 points. I don't have updated data on that, and I don't need it, I don't really care. Purdue was a vastly superior team that was really unlucky. As such, we getting money on Vandy.
I don't think that is advisable. Purdue carries a massive edge on their offense. No other unit on the field is mildly comparable, and the Vandy defense did nothing to inspire confidence last week. They were better than their offense, but so was eating a turd on a hot summers day.
I think Purdue can have a bunch off success, and while I believe we see a much better effort from Vandy against a FAR lessor defense this week, I don't think they can keep up, unless Vaughn just completely takes the game over and Purdue TOs a bunch again. Lay the 7. Purdue 35-21
Cuse @ Maryland (-1.5/58) Boy was Cuse's offense bad last week. Tom Devito was 17-35-176-0-2 passing v Liberty def that gave up 256 pass YPG last year, 101st nationally. The only prayer was hoping that Moe Neal found space. Other than him, everything and everyone was bottled up.
Cuse ran 79 plays to Liberty's 76. Cuse avg 4.6 YPP. They run bunch of option routes, which relies on both WRs and QBs making proper post-snap reads. They rarely both did so on same play, or the OL failed them. The OL failed badly, in general, and that is my big concern for them
It's reasonable to expect they improve as the year goes, but I'm not confident that it happens here against a team that doesn't have overmatched athletes at every position, like Liberty. The encouraging thing for them was their defense. I liked their potential but they were great
Liberty ran for -4 yards on 34 attempts and only went 21-42-238-0-2 passing. That's 3 YPP. Final was 24-0. Not much to be gleaned from Maryland's 79-0 route of Howard. They held them to 1 rushing on 38 attempts and 8-19-67-0-0 passing. Job well done against a club like that.
Maryland had 623 yards on 78 plays. They did it equally on the ground and via. It's easy to be excited about Locksley's influence, and it may very well materialize, but that game doesn't tell me anything. This should be a pretty fast paced game. Locks prob wont go too fast
but Cuse always go fast under Babers. I bet the under 59.5 and my biggest concern is the amount of snaps. I actually think this is the first Cuse under that I've bet in several years, and I seemingly bet their overs every week. I think their offense has real concerns right now
while their defense, which I thought had potential this offseason, is gonna be pretty good. Howard got way too much pressure on Josh Jackson last week, which could be expected w Maryland losing both their tackles this year. Some inexperience on OL w two freshman on the left side.
Could be that they are all ready to roll and this offense is ready to ascend to great heights, it just seems a risky proposition to me, based on where they finished last season and having only seen it against an overmatched HBCU in week one. I think both front 7s have the edge
This won't likely be a fun game to watch with an under ticket, but I think it's the right move. I have some pro-Syracuse futures, so I hope they get things together and get the W here, but I'm not nearly as optimistic as I was a month ago. Forgive me Dungey, 27-24 Terps.
WVU @ Missouri (-13.5/62.5)
WVU was really uninspiring against JMU last week. They won 20-13, but their offense was stifled. They had to go to air far more often than they would have liked - 42 tosses. They ran for one yard per carry and their long run was five years.
Missouri's shortcoming last week was rush defense. The Cowboys had 43-297-3 rushing as a team. 136 came on two plays. The other 41 had 161 yards and one TD. Wyoming ran 58 plays compared to 90 for Missouri. Wyoming won 37-31, which was very impressive. Worth noting again that
21 points came on two big runs and a fumble returned for a TD. Wyoming was only 6-16 passing for 92 yards, which was really poor, but it's apples to oranges when comparing them stylistically to WVU. I don't think WVU's OL is going to hold up well here. Pass blocking prob key 4thm
Missouri rush offense was stymied last week. They had 2.7 YPC with a long of fourteen. WVU facing JMU last week doesn't give us a great barometer for where they are at this season, JMU couldn't be more doff stylistically than Missouri. I took under 65. Hopefully WVU pace moderate
because Missouri should continue to go fast. This is a volatile game. Both teams week two opponents are so different than their week ones. I don't feel we really have great idea who either team is. I'm much more confident in Missouri's offense than I am WVU. 34-24 Missouri.
USF @ GT (-6/61)
I have no idea. We learned nothing about GT offense, other than they weren't comfortable running anything close to what they will hope to in a year from now. Oliver pretty much just did a bunch of designed QB runs. It was awful, as they are v Clem every yr
USF got boat raced at home against an impressive Wisconsin outfit. Hard to get much of feel for their new look offense as well. Rain, poor OL play, and dropped balls at WR made this one worse than it prob should have been. USF won 49-38 in Tampa last year. Game was absurd.
USF 426 on 75 plays and GT 607 on 75 plays. Whenever I have no clue how a game plays out, I see the value in taking the points. However, I don't think this line is bad enough that I feel compelled to get in there. GT should run all over USF and GT def is type that USF has beat up
I will hope to catch the replay of the game and see what type of offense GT chooses to roll out. It surely can't be that mess we saw last week... 34-30 Tech
Texas AM @ Clemson (-17/63)
Met LY and Clemson (Pre Lawrence) was cruising until a furious comeback by TAMU went down 28-26. Clemson offense wasn't very impressive last week. They were beneficiaries of the 2 long ETN runs and 4 GT TOs. They had TD drives of: 5 plays 16 yards,
1 play of 90 yard run, 1 play of 14 yards, 5 plays for 92 yards on a 62 yard catch, 2 plays of 60 yards w 48 yard run, 8 play 77 yards, 7 plays 67 yards. So that's two really cheap ones after TOs, three merited big plays due to individual brilliance, and the other two pretty avg.
Lawrence was more loose with the ball than we've seen from him in past. They lost a ton on defense, but the GT offense gave us no indication of where they are truly at. aTm threw well on them last year and they will likely need to win via air again. aTm OL didnt exactly dominate
an overmatched Texas State front last week. Spiller had a really long run, but they didn't have many explosives in the run game. Mond was crisp and the emergence of Ausbon at WR is a big deal for them. We know that Jimbo will want to go slow on offense. LY 131 total snaps aTm
enjoyed a 501-414 yardage edge, both vey healthy 7.0 YPP. Clemson has won their last 11 games by 20 PPG or more. That's wild. I think that both teams have questions to answer on defense, but I fairly optimistic about both groups. I think the talent level is more comparable than
the gap that exists between Clemson and most of their ACC foes they see each week. I'm getting to where I trust Mond to manage a game. His OL could be his undoing, but i like their skill talent. I don't think Clemson is in jeopardy here, but their 20 point win streak could be.
Jimbo Fisher and Clemson DC Brent Venables first squared off in 2004 Rose Bowl when LSU beat Oklahoma 21-14. Jimbo then went 3-3 against Clemson at FSU, and lost by two last year. Fisher never lost by more than 17, with the other MOVs being 10, 3, and 2.
I took aTm +21 in the futures market many months ago and took Under 65 this week. I currently prefer the under to the Aggies side at these prices. I think Clemson wins a 38-21 type of game. Should be a really fun game to watch.
So Miss @ Miss St (-16.5/51) S Miss beat Alcorn 38-10. 394-219 yardage edges in a slow-paced game. S Miss continues to be unable to run the ball, but they had a nice passing day, and that is what they will lean on against a Miss St team that will dominate their run game.
Defense was very good last year and looked good against Alcorn, but that means nothing here. Miss St offense was improved last week as they put up 38 points and finally unlocked their receivers. Stevens wasnt great, but he was certainly better than Fitz as a passer. Good news is
they finally realized what they have in Kylin Hill who neared 200 total yards against a poor ULL defense. The defense was the more surprising group. ULL got 431 yards on 76 plays w 4.4 YPC 6.8 YPA. Miss St were +2 in TO and only won 38-28. I figured their defense would regress
and last week showed they had in a big way. They should have too much for S Miss in this game. I took the over 51. I'm 🤷🏿‍♂️ about it. I'm banking on USM throwing the ball close to 50 times and having success by sheer volume. Miss St likely to maintain balance again. 35-20 Miss St
NMSU @ Alabama (-55.5/65) Wash St just beat NMSU 58-7. 618-317 yardage edge, so it was a deceptive scoreline. NMSU runs fast-paced, air raid. Mike Leach loves their QB, he said he would start for all but 3 teams in the PAC 12 at QB. Prepare for his grad transfer to Wash St soon!
I think Bama motivated on offense in this game after a ho-hum 42-3 thrashing of a good defense. Was St averaged almost 10 YPP last game, so Bama should just rip off massive plays with whatever they want to do. How many do they wanna win by? Took NMSU TT over 3.5 at +$. Bama 62-10
ULM @ FSU (-22/65) Should be a really fast paced game. Both teams had deceptive score lines last week. Starting with ULM, they allowed 407 yards to Grambling State, but they only scored 9 points. Good job keeping them outta end zone, but this is a bad defense again.
ULM only ran 67 plays, but gained 501 yards. They never punted in the game, but only managed 31 points. This game had 40 points, but closer to 60 should have been the appropriate score given those outputs. Grambling ran for 6.6 YPC LW (!!), so Akers and the fellas gonna smash
The good news for ULM is that FSU's def will give some up. They had to defend 100+ plays last week, which is nearly impossible for any def to overcome, but their LB play, in particular, was bad, not what you want against a dual-threat QB. Many snaps. I went over 59.5. 45-21 Noles
BYU @ Tennessee (-4/51.5) BYU should have much easier time with UT defense than they did with Utah. They were unlucky to lose by margin they did LW, gave up 2 defensive TDs. Without those, it's 16-12. Ga St beat Tennessee 38-30 LW. 404 yards 71 plays UT, 352 on 77 for GSU.
Tennessee still weak in the trenches, and that should not be great against a BYU team that could be pretty good in those areas. These are two sneaky good QBs. I don't really care for this game. 28-27 Vols.
LSU @ Texas (+6.5/57.5) I took Texas +7 in the futures market month ago. I bet on Tom Herman as a dog every game, so this is a macro play for me. Don't love the matchup for them. LSU offense didnt get challenged last week, but it was easy to see they are much more capable this yr
Burrow good enough to unlock their talented pass catchers. Wont be the easy game of pitch and catch against off-coverage like we saw last week, but they are gonna be better on off, surely. Defensively, easy to believe they will be good again, but Werts getting hurt early and them
running a triple option give us no barometer for this game. I have no problem trusting their defense. Texas may be without Sterns in the secondary, which would be a MASSIVE loss. Texas took few injuries in week one to an already inexperienced team. This is where Herman shines tho
LSU defenders back talking that ish about Ehlinger, simialr to what La Tech did last week, and that didn't go well for them, but thats like an eight-year old boy talking rash versus a man trained in Krav maga. Texas is going to need their WRs to do some work after the catch.
Texas threw pretty much everything short against last week and last season LSU was excellent in defending those. They have multiple first rounders in the secondary, which means it's gonna be a tall ask for the Texas passing game and they will need to hit some go balls.
If it sounds like I believe Texas has their work cut out for them, I do. Since I made the bet months ago, its fair to say my opinion of LSU has improved while it has slightly decreased for Texas. Herman 13-2-1 ATS last 16 as a dog, so he and his gamer QB Sam E show up. 30-24 LSU
Tulane @ Auburn (-17/51.5) Two really good front 7’s. Tulane offense was terrific last week, but unlikely their style has much success against a team that will eat them in the trenches. Aub decimated Oregon OL last week, same fate here, I believe. Tulane defense was great last em
Bottled up a good FIU offense, held them to 4.5 YPP. I trust wily Willy Fritz to have a defensive gameplan that forces Nix to win through air, something he was unable to do last week. I went under 52. Auburn pretty much the bigger, stronger version of same team. 30-14 Tigers.
Arkansas @ Ole Miss (-6.5/50.5) Man, were both of these offenses bad last week. Total opened about five points higher and was understandably bet down. I bet Ole Miss -2.5 in futures market months ago and then took a juiced Ark +7.5 on BOL this week. Really nice opp to scoop.
The Ole Miss OL got smashed last week against Memphis. That’s not good to see against a G5 school before SEC play. That was their potential weakness and now it’s their confirmed weakness. Corral wasn’t sharp either. It was just a miserable offensive effort, top to bottom.
Defensively they were sharp. They forced Memphis to dink and dunk, which is really all white is capable of. Held them to 4.4 YPP and didn’t give up any 25+ yard gains. Unfortunately, they averaged 3.3 YPP in a 15-10 loss. Ark beat Portland St 20-13. Yikes, that’s bad. 5.3-3.8 YPP
QBs were brutal, Hicks in particular. I don’t think he’s capable of functioning at this level. This is a game that could be played with above average pace, but I think both defenses are ahead of the the offenses right now. This is almost always a wild, close game.
I think it will be close again, but not the typical shootout that we’ve come to expect. Trust Ole Miss’ offense to find its form. Think they have the much better QB. Rebs win 27-24.
EMU @ Kentucky (-16/52.5) EMU won at CC 30-23 last week. Game was played even at 5.2 -5.2 YPP but EMU barely had ball. Mike Glass was slick at QB and is a bigger dual threat than he showed. Kentucky beat Toledo last week but the game would have been closer if Toledo hadnt lost QB
Guadagni is dual threat and ripped them on ground. Makes sense that additional stressor is tough on a very inexperienced Kentucky D. Final was 38-24 and Uk had 6.4-5.4 YPP edge. Kentucky has the speed on offense to get behind MAC defenders. I went over 50.5. EMU rush def was bad
LY while their oss defense numbers were elite. That’s is not a recipe for success against an SEC team built like Kentucky. I don’t know if that will be same for EMU this year. It wasn’t week one v CC. Cats win 35-20.
Miami @ UNC (+5/46) Both teams played in deceptive games last week. Miami shoulda lost worse than 24-20 to Florida and UNC shoulda beat USCe worse than 24-20. Miami OL was “HONK IF YOU SACKED BRODIE” bad. Gave up like 10 or 11 of them. Good news, UNC defense not terribly daunting
They haven’t stopped the run in years, so not willing to believe they can do it until they do. UNC gonna go high tempo, and their FR QB was really good last week. He had more opportunity to success than Williams, who I believe will show his high ceiling this week.
I trust Miami most, but UNC was really impressive last week the more I’ve reviewed. Miami blasted them 47-10 last year but UNC had a 24-14 FD edge, and only outgained 354-329. Miami scored three times on defense. I went over 46 here. 27-24 Canes.
That will conclude the weekly program. I’ve played some other SEC ACC crossovers but will wait until tomorrow to share those plays. Not gonna write any of them up but will share the plays.
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