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X : Can you explain what is going on in UK politics? It's all very confusing.
Me : Sure. We started off with two main parties containing a spectrum of views mostly contaminated by neoliberalism. This caused lots of infighting ...
... then we had a compromise situation created in Labour with some MPs changing position and a few leaving to join LibDems plus also an night of long knives in the Conservative party removing those last remnants of One Nation Tory ...
What we're left with is stability in the parties but the Conservatives have shifted to full on neoliberalism with anything goes as long as they win, the LibDems are slightly better but no great difference, Labour occupies centre ground along with a few independent (ex Tory MPs).
The next step will probably be a closer working between Labour and some of those Independent MPs. I could imagine a few will join over time.
X : That's a 2x2.
Me : Actually, they are just guidelines. Would this make it more helpful?
X : The centre ground is between the parties.
Me : Sure, it's shifted compared to historic norms. That's fair.
... so for example, we could add in Marxism and Supermac.
X : Supermac?
Me : Harold Macmillan. A real one nation style Tory heavily focused on economic planning. Bit of a legend though mostly remembered for the scandals.
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More from @swardley see all

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Simon Wardley
@swardley
My final post on politics. This is the only thing that matters and something the Democrats need to carefully examine.

Well played Dominic ->
X : What about if we get a new ...

Me : Stop! The wolves are no longer baying at the door, we've welcomed them in with open arms. Adaptation is a survival mechanism. We're all wolves now. The past is gone.
X : If only ...

Me : Heaven help us. I did warn that what I feared was not brexit but what happens if we continue to ignore the will of the people. We're here now. We're all wolves now. Adapt to it.
Read 6 tweets
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Simon Wardley
@swardley
What a result - bbc.co.uk/news/election/…

Anyway, enough politics for me. The idea of a more collective approach is now in the ditch.

Time to adapt to a new UK.
X : Who do you think is to blame?

Me : It doesn't matter. What matters is adapting to the new world we find ourselves in.
X : What do you think will happen on brexit?

Me : We shall see what trade deal they can negotiate. A WTO brexit must be 50/50 now, it depends upon how quickly negotiators move. On the positive side, at least the question has found resolution.
Read 4 tweets
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Simon Wardley
@swardley
X : Thoughts on election?
Me : Very early days. Given the exit poll ... well ... I did say it was unwise for Labour to support a peoples vote - ... we shall see. A repeating pattern of LAB to BXP will tell us. On a positive it ends the remain question.
X : What about the future?
Me : It's a bit early to be calling anything.
X : What if poll holds?
Me : Continued austerity, privatisation and a move to ever greater neoliberalism. It's not going to be pretty for many, good for some.
X : Green?
Me : I doubt it'll be on the agenda.
... however, it's a bit early to be talking about such things. Let us wait until the results are in. There's a long way to go.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Ken Cheng
@kenchengcomedy
With one day left before the election, here's a thread on why polls suck and how they *could* all be wrong

1/?
Firstly, let’s talk about Don’t Knows (DKs). The DKs going into this election are fairly high. I’ve always thought polling results should include DKs in their reporting, but I can see why they don’t: they want the headline to resemble the final result more closely.

2/?
But here’s an example of what a poll figure looks like with DKs (I’ve removed Won’t Vote and Refused). For example, Yougov’s last non-MRP poll

CON: 43%
LAB: 33%
LDEM: 13%
BREX: 3%
GRN: 3%

Looks more like this:

CON: 37%
LAB: 29%
LDEM: 11%
BREX: 2%
GRN: 3%
DK: 14.5%

3/?
Read 56 tweets
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Owen Crawford 🇪🇺
@Oen_C
"Voting privilege and 'less-popular' parties" - A Thread on #politics

If 'less popular' parties such as Lib Dem, Plaid, Green are super serious about winning election seats, why are they not constantly campaigning collaboratively for change to the UK voting system?
At the moment in some areas they are literally just encouraging people to waste their vote. Cardiff North is a good example as there is no chance of Plaid / Lib Dem winning under the current system, but they are still standing candidates there.
Doing this, and campaigning for people to vote for them, says to me that: "We don't actually care about implementing our policies, we just care about getting one more vote, regardless of who we might take that vote away from", and the impact of that on the Government.
Read 8 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Read this, then consider what happens if the Lib Dems pivot to an outright "revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU" stance from any form of second referendum. They can suck all the oxygen out of the Remain room before Labour can draw breath. ⁦@LibDems⁩ theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Because bear in mind that the LD don't need to win a single Leave vote - not one - in order to boost their vote share enormously. All they have to do is court the lion's share of those who are now seeking Remain. And the best & most obvious fit is to offer them just that: Remain.
Note: that is not the same as saying they should disregard Leave concerns entirely *after* a GE (concerns such as feeling left behind by London/SE).

But they need play no part during the GE itself. Just make a pure remain play for Remain voters, and watch the votes pour in.
Read 10 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Wowzer. New poll on Britain's #EP2019 next month

-more than half of Leave support now going to Brexit Party
-'hard' Eurosceptic Brexit Party + UKIP on a combined 34% of vote

Brexit Party 27%
Labour 22%
Conservative 15%
Lib Dem 9%
UKIP 7%
Change UK 6%
SNP 4%

YouGov Apr 16
Well, Brexit has been handled so well that it appears to have brought Nigel Farage back to life. Back in 2014, we estimated that the ceiling for the populist right in Britain was approx. 30%. An open question is whether the Brexit fiasco has now raised that ceiling.
Looking at numbers, Brexit Party appears to be hoovering up disillusioned Conservatives, Leavers, bit more popular among men, 50 years +, stronger among working-class (though significant middle-class support) & more than two-fold support in Midlands/non-London south than London
Read 5 tweets
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Amid reports that #UK PM @theresa_may hopes to renegotiate the "backstop" provision on the Northern Ireland border, let's recall that she already made clear what she wants in her letter to #EU leaders before disastrously losing the #Brexit Withdrawal Treaty ratification vote. 1/
"This could be mitigated by changes to the backstop itself," she wrote to @eucopresident & @JunckerEU "Proposals for a way in which the UK could choose to exit the backstop unilaterally were it ever to come into force, or for a hard time limit... 2/
on the duration of the usage of the backstop, have been raised and discussed in Parliament. We have also raised them previously in negotiations." So there are her proposals, i.e. the EU should basically just cave on backstop in face of House of Commons defeat. But but but ... 3/
Read 17 tweets
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GalacticRedPill
@GalacticRedPill
Let's dig into this deeper. This is a MAJOR development that signals things at the DOJ are about to get quite spicy.

@ThomasWictor @drawandstrike @_VachelLindsay_ @TheLastRefuge2 @tracybeanz @NameRedacted7
More sources:
thehill.com/policy/cyberse…
Ezra Cohen-Watnick (ECW) is a name that should be remembered from previous threads on @GenFlynn and the network of leak hunters he installed while he was NSC.

As a refresher, check out this important article from the Atlantic:
theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
Read 26 tweets

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