1) Look folks, on the U.S-China trade discussions, there's a fundamental paradigm shift people need to make to understand Trump's objective...
Think Different !!
Think BIGLY !!
Think Different !!
Think BIGLY !!
2) President Trump doesn't want it not to suck to do business in China.
3) Trump doesn't want China to change the entire manufacturing process and comply with Western perspectives on trade and free markets.
4) Trump want it to suck doing business in China.
5) There is no actual intent to reach a trade deal with China where the U.S. drops the tariffs and returns to holding hands with a happy panda playing by new rules.
6) This fictional narrative is a figment of fantasy being sold by a financial media that cannot fathom a U.S. President would be so bold as to just walk away from China.
7) That ‘walk away’ is exactly what President Trump did when he left all of those meetings in Southeast Asia in 2017; and every moment since has been setting up, and firming up, an entirely new global supply chain without China.
8) President Trump is not currently engaged in a substantive trade agreement in the formal way people are thinking about it.
9) Instead “Phase-One” is simply President Trump negotiating the terms of a big Agricultural purchase commitment from Beijing, and also protecting some very specific U.S. business interests (think Apple Co.) in the process.
10) The actual goal of President Trump’s U.S-China trade reset is a complete decoupling of U.S. critical manufacturing within China.
11) President Trump does not express angst, frustration, or even disappointment over the U.S-China trade discussions because the decoupling is well underway.
12) China is suffering a slow death by a thousand paper-cuts. The bleeding of cash in combination with the direct loss of $75 billion in annualized exported products that U.S. companies have now sourced from alternative ASEAN nations is biting hard.
13) Nothing President Trump is going to do will be designed to reverse this process.
He doesn't want U.S. companies to have better terms inside China. The Chinese totalitarian control over U.S. businesses serves his interests.
He doesn't want U.S. companies to have better terms inside China. The Chinese totalitarian control over U.S. businesses serves his interests.
14) There is a natural lag as supply chains reorient.
15) In the investment, lending and financing dynamic, is where the current Wall Street multinational corps, banks and hedgefunds are stalled and watching closely.
They hope to retain their prior Chinese investment; but Trump has warned them to drop that outlook....
They hope to retain their prior Chinese investment; but Trump has warned them to drop that outlook....
16) No-one wants to drop $100 million to help expand a U.S. manufacturer in Asia, if Mexico -via the USMCA- ends up being a more cost efficient location.
This dynamic is where ratification of the USMCA was/is a key part of President Trump’s global trade reset.
This dynamic is where ratification of the USMCA was/is a key part of President Trump’s global trade reset.
17) The financial pundits, most beholden to the needs of the Wall Street multinationals, are overestimating the scale and scope of issues likely resolved within “phase one”. There is not likely to be resolution to the bigger issues in the U.S-China trade conflict.
18) Think Different. Think Bigly !
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