Here's a cynical take on what lies ahead, on the Monday morning after the election. Johnson will continue to insist on concluding the negotiations in one year. This is a gift to the EU: they are already insisting on another round of sequencing.1/
Trade in goods and fish will come first, because the no-deal cliff edge is worst in this sector. But it is bad for the UK to prioritise this because it has few bargaining chips. A longer negotiation, including financial services and security, would be more balanced. 2/
But the populist is not concerned by reality. Johnson will play a game of chicken in autumn 2020 and will get a little more from the EU as a result - though only in the form of more fudge on level playing-field and perhaps fewer EU fish quotas. 3/
Populist goal achieved: Johnson will be able to cry victory again, returning from another EU summit. As if nothing has changed, out or in. Except, of course, all this will mean that the new trade reality will kick in on 1 Jan 2021. That's a hard fact. 4/
Because of Brexit the UK populists do not have as free a hand as others. Trump can play trade games all the time, and claim victory and trump deals (sorry), without anything much changing. But being really outside the EU (after the transition) is a hard economic fact. END
