I really don’t get this talk about NI being “legally” in the UK’s customs territory but “factually” or “in practice” in the EU’s. 1/
Customs unions are pure legal constructs. If NI is legally in UK customs union, then NI goods exported to the EU must pay the requisite EU duties. 2/
In the absence of a border, how can that work? If (and indeed only IF) there is an EU-UK FTA with zero duties: not a problem for UK-originating goods. 3/
But if there is no FTA, all trade between NI and Ireland needs checking - at the border. We know that tech alone won’t do that.4/
Even with an FTA: free trade does not extend to third-country products. See Barnier’s sugar example. EU customs duties will need to levied on all such goods entering NI, if a border is to be avoided. 5/
Idea seems to be that NI businesses will be able to claim a rebate, if the goods are destined for the NI market./6
Problem 1: how do they prove this? Problem 2: we live in free markets. The goods are sold to a third party, which sells them in Ireland or elsewhere in the EU. Problem 3: Irish customers buy the rebated goods in NI, en masse.7/
Nothing illegal about 2 and 3. Why wouldn’t some businesses start specialising in this? 8/
EU beware: from backstop to floodgates. END
