1) Extended 👏 Tax 👏 Incentives 👏 Won't 👏 Help 👏 Tesla's 👏 US 👏 Sales 👏
* The older the model, the weaker its demand
* Model S: 8yrs; X: 5yrs; & 3: 3yrs by Q2'20
* Musk said "no refreshes"
* No refresh = lower demand/higher incentives
* Nov US incentives: record high
* The older the model, the weaker its demand
* Model S: 8yrs; X: 5yrs; & 3: 3yrs by Q2'20
* Musk said "no refreshes"
* No refresh = lower demand/higher incentives
* Nov US incentives: record high
2) BMW's i3 has incentives (cash+subsidies) amounting to a 33% discount, yet sales are -20% YTD (Nov +87% YoY b/c new version launched). Table above shows, despite incentives, old models die out. And despite being cheaper than the M3 after incentives, i3 & I-Pace sell <1K/month.
3) Unless $TSLA spends ~$400m/model for full-model changes (FMC), all of its cars will see sales shrink. Already happened to the S/X globally & now to the 3 in the US (EU in Q2'20). Porsche's Panamera had a great (but costly) FMC, but $TSLA doesn't have the cash to do this.
4) Models S/X only rose 2% YoY through Q3'18 (if you believe InsideEVs' #'s), despite the looming 50% cut in tax rebates from Q4'18. M3 sales were at all-time highs despite the halving of subsidies, because it was, well, a *new* model.
5) So if Congress passes a bill that allows $TSLA an extra 200K cars to get $7K in subsidies, it won't really help much. It might get Model Y to its 150K goal, but S3X will continue their demise as the US car market shrinks. And that's a net drag on profits, along w/ EU & China.
