, 10 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
1) Why did an unheard-of $TSLA subsidiary called "Tesla Beijing" cut a deal w/ Chinese banks for a $700m loan facility for the "purchase & import" of cars to China? Why did this get signed 2 biz-days before Q3 end? It's odd & might account for higher Q3 deliveries than expected.
2) I searched for "Tesla Beijing" in the past four 10-Qs & found nothing. This is puzzling, as $700m is a large sum to be able to tap into for a subsidiary never mentioned before. I also thought $700m would be better used as capex for GF3's equipment, not car orders for Fremont.
3) $700m is roughly 15K Model 3s, which, if subtracted from reported Q3 deliveries, gets you to 82K, or exactly where $TSLAQ delivery bros like @DeanSheikh1, @btsparks, @Paul91701736, etc had been pointing to. And the timing is uncanny: US demand cliff + super-tough YoY hurdles.
4) My own Q3 estimates for China are 8.2K, but I've got no clue how many could be in transit. There is a spike in orders for $TSLA right now in China b/c the CCP exempted it from China's 10% purchase tax (usually only for local producers), but I thought this would only impact Q4
5) A ship w/ around 1K cars landed in China on Sep-23, mostly w/ Xs (h/t: @Paul91701736). SUVs are more popular in China & the X has bigger absolute savings in a 10%-Off Sale. The rest of the orders could've been made on Sep-27 after the loan deal & now en route to China.
6) Many feel that Q3 InsideEV #'s in the US were too high, so China could be the balance of lower "real" #'s in the US.

If so, is it really wrong for Tesla Beijing to order 15K a day after signing the $700m loan deal? Q2'18 had 15K in transit. Wonder what Musk would say?
7) @AaronGreenspan may have found out. In this spy novel-like thread by @PlainSite, he's shown digging into an account that "sounds" like Musk, after getting no reply from a direct email to Musk on the issue a few days before. Must-read material.

8) The reply, "Every auto manufacturer does this", sounds exactly like something Musk would say. But I've never heard of any automaker in the world who orders >10% of their quarterly revenues only 2 business days before quarter-end. Only @elonmusk operates like this.
9) I hope $TSLA did stuff the China channels in Q3, as it'll be a huge one-off (tariff hike on US cars from 15%->40% on Dec-15) & will cause a slump from mid-Dec unless GF3 is pumping out 12.5K M3s/month. Judging from recent spy pictures, I wouldn't long that prospect.
Here's a link that shows the details of Tesla Motor Beijing. The 8-K from Oct-2nd may have misspelled the Chinese name. Nevertheless, if you search the 10-Q w/ "Beijing", etc it still doesn't show up. H/T: @4xRevenue
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to @Motorhead
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!