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@Subvetnuc @dandrezner may need to add in walnuts. Almonds are mostly exported, so can (if China buys a ton) reduce supply to India to raise numbers for China.

back in 2010 had a big fast growing market, so am assuming that could reemerge if tariffs lifted
@Subvetnuc @dandrezner back in 2013 the NYT reported a third of the pecan crop went to China ...

nytimes.com/2013/11/28/us/…
@Subvetnuc @dandrezner I haven't done a formal estimate, but my sense is that there is a billion or so of exports here.

and the broader point is that there are some smaller crops that China has tariffed over time in various trade disputes that help get to the headline number
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Brad Setser
@Brad_Setser
It is a bit "nuts" that the success of the "Phase 1" trade deal with China may come down to how many nuts China buys next year ....

1/x
That said, the U.S. is a big almond exporter, and China has developed a taste for pecans (and its own pecan trees aren't yet mature).

2/x
And U.S. nuts are to US-China trade what French wine and cheese are to US-EU trade. The first hostages taken in any trade skirmish. They are a standard target for Chinese retaliation ...

3/x
Read 5 tweets
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Brad Setser
@Brad_Setser
China hasn’t confirmed the $200b (over 2ys) increase in purchases, so it may not be “real.”

But I don’t doubt China’s ability to give Trump the appearance of a “win” here. China’s bureaucracy has lots of experience meeting … (umm) ambitious … official growth targets.

1/ x
China hasn’t said much, and the USTR fact sheet doesn’t provide any real detail either – so it could mostly be spin.

The only real detail is the$40b a year target for US ag ($50b is spin, not a commitment)

2/ many

ustr.gov/sites/default/…
But let’s take the commitment seriously as well as literally -- The 2017 base in the US data (goods and services) is around $175b – so $350b using a 2y horizon.

Adding $200b to that over 2 years thus seems ... challenging.

3/x

reuters.com/article/uk-usa…
Read 25 tweets
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Brad Setser
@Brad_Setser
So the first phase of the Phase 1 deal is that the US rolls back the 15% tariff to 7.5% in return for basically the agricultural purchases China has already been doing + going back to normal on 'beans after the US harvest?

1/x
wsj.com/articles/us-ch…
And then China delivers more (how much more is undefined) ag purchases + energy purchases + manufactures purchases (presumably an aircraft order, plus also rollback of auto tariffs) next year for further US tariff reductions (on the $200b list? or on the first $50b too?)

2/x
Feels like the expected purchases for tariff relief deal, dressed up with the IPR reforms China is already implemented and a reiteration of China's existing G-20 language on currency ...

3/x
Read 6 tweets

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Karen Braun
@kannbwx
This again.

#China agreeing to make $50 billion in U.S. agricultural purchases in 2020.

The RECORD value for annual U.S. ag product exports to China was in 2012 at just under $26 billion. Compare commodity prices then and now. For reference, 2017 was $19.5 billion.
And if you consider Ag & Related Products (includes fish & forestry products) - max was $29 billion in 2013. So this is the absolute max previous ceiling considering all exports that could be considered ag.

I'm not seeing how $50B is possible in 2020.
I posted this as a reply below, but worth repeating:

The max annual combined export value of U.S. #pork and #soybeans to ALL destinations: $31 billion in 2012.

Add in #corn (TOTAL, to ALL buyers): $41 billion in 2014.
Read 7 tweets
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Christina Larson 可心
@larsonchristina
China is top carbon emitter - burning half world's coal, but also using more clean energy than any other nation. As world leaders meet to discuss climate, I took a deep look at conflicting trends shaping China's energy trajectory and planet's climate. 1/ apnews.com/0383cebcfa1941…
From 2000-2018, China's annual carbon emissions nearly tripled, and it now accounts for about 30% of world’s total. Yet it’s also the leading market for solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles, and it manufactures about two-thirds of solar cells installed worldwide. 2/
That apparent paradox is possible because of sheer scale of China’s energy demands. As a fast-growing economy, it was inevitable that China's energy use would climb steeply. The only question was whether China could derive enough power from renewables to curb emissions growth. 3/
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info
@IndoPac_Info
#China & #India aren’t best friends – but agreed strategic adjustment might prevent WAR between Asian superpowers - The summits indicate that Xi and Modi are committed to predictable and stable relations which do not boil over rt.com/op-ed/470804-c…
For years, the Chinese held a dim view of India as a socially and economically backward land, and a stooge of Western imperialism which is no match to China. But India’s rise as an independent ‘leading power’ under Modi has compelled fullest attention in Beijing.
Ironically, if China needs Pakistan to keep India under check, India under Modi has played the card of cozying up to the US and Russia to keep China under check.
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yourproductguy
@MotwaniSuhas
Just been thinking about a platform I spend quite some time on, please feel free to critique, add your thoughts and chip in :)

#india #ott #netflixandchill
A little bit (longish) background check:

- In historic terms, definitely has had a dream run but the recent performance of Netflix stocks have been volatile at best with a number of factors are causing investors to be extra cautious when it comes to investing in Netflix.
Most recently, Disney’s latest announcement of Disney+ sent Netflix shares tumbling by 4.5%

investors.com/news/technolog…
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info
@IndoPac_Info
#China backtracked on nearly all aspects of #US trade deal - All of us that follow & know China knew that this was never going to fly. You can't negotiate with a rogue, predatory state like China. This is for the better. mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id…
The diplomatic cable from Beijing arrived in Washington late on Friday night, with systematic edits to a nearly 150-page draft trade agreement that would blow up months of negotiations. The document was riddled with reversals by China that undermined core US demands, sources said
In each of the 7 chapters of the draft trade deal, China deleted its commitments to change laws to resolve core complaints that caused the US to launch a trade war: theft of US IP & trade secrets; forced tech transfers; competition policy; access to financial services, etc, etc.
Read 43 tweets
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *U.S. WAITING TO HEAR FROM #CHINA ON TRADE DEAL, KUDLOW SAYS - BBG
*KUDLOW EXPECTS U.S.-CHINA MEETING IN MARCH IN MAR-A-LAGO
*TRUMP, LIGHTHIZER ARE VERY CLOSE, KUDLOW TELLS CNBC
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 #CHINA WOULD HAVE TO NOTE ANY FX INTERVENTION UNDER DEAL: KUDLOW - BBG
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *MNUCHIN SAYS #CHINA #TRADE TALKS INCLUDE 150-PAGE DOCUMENT - BBG
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