Thread by @JenniferMerode

The option to extend the Brexit transition disappears on 1 July 2020, no ifs, no buts: this was the message from the EU’s most senior lawyer to EU27 diplomats at a private meeting on Tuesday.

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EU diplomats believe Boris Johnson when he says he doesn’t want to extend the transition period. “It is probably one of the areas where Johnson isn’t lying” quipped one person in the room, a view shared by others.

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The EU institutions want EU27 countries to internalise the message that 1 July 2020 is a real deadline.

Of course, EU diplomats also once said Brexit would have to happen *before* EP elections May 2019. Political will changes under political pressures.
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The European commission told EU27 diplomats they would prepare one comprehensive mandate for future relationship talks, covering all subjects. The mandate is expected early February.
EU27 Brexit working group will meet daily in January to feed into this process.
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Ursula von der Leyen has said “there will be sequencing” and priorities for the future talks will be ranked. 1. To be done in 11 months 2. To be agreed 2021 and beyond. But there is no agreement on what falls into which category APART FROM

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...Issues signalled in the Brexit withdrawal agreement and some other statements: goods, level playing field [fair competition] and fish. Don’t forget fish.
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Remember in previous political guidelines March 2018 the EU linked zero tariffs to maintaining current fishing quotas - a link British diplomats thought outrageous.
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Von der Leyen has also said she will prioritise areas where there is less to fall back on in intl law

EU diplomats expect first priorities to be areas where EU has exclusive competence in trade negotiations.

ECJ Singapore judgement may help here

theguardian.com/law/2017/may/1…

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EU officials all stress time is tight and cliff edge real.

But it won't be the same cliff edge as before.

Leaving EU w/o withdrawal agreement under A50 is like kicking the table and smashing the crockery. That is because....

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Once out of EU w/o A50 the basic elements of WA would have had to be agreed under new legal basis. That would have been time consuming, legal headache, politically toxic.

No-deal with WA in bank is different: EU and UK negotiators can continue talks on 1 Jan 2021...
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But the economic outlook is no easier, with all studies showing a bigger hit for UK economy than EU27, if no deal. That is why EU think they have negotiating upper hand.

TLDR: Welcome to Brexit phase two: not done yet by a long way.
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