Thread by @HNIJohnMiller

1) Alright, here we go. As promised.

Tentative delegate counts if primaries were held today of how the Democrat Presidential candidates will shake out.

It started from this article politico.com/news/magazine/…

(h/t @Barnes_Law I was not trying to put him on blast, just politico)

@Barnes_Law 2) A few things before I get started: Breaking down my methodology and explanations of how Democrat primaries work. Because they're fucking weird.

First, I got my data from the aggregates at @RealClearNews realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_…

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 3) There are a few states, primarily those that happen later in the primary season, that there's only a poll or two done; I averaged them together if multiple polls were done, otherwise I included a few states around the middle of the season that reflected the overall polling.

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 4) Also, I only included 4 candidates in this breakdown. Senile old man, senile old socialist, senile old wannabe native american, and Buttgeiger.

These are the only 4 candidates at 6% and above in many states (I say many because Buttgeiger is below this in a fair few).

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 5) My strong objection to the Politico article is that Buttgeiger is the next Macron.

I object to this because he has to win to be Macron, for one, and for two, this is a bald-faced attempt to promote and boost Buttgeigers chances.

Because he's fucking LOSING. BADLY.

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 6) The Democrat primaries, they go state by state, yeah? And each state has delegates, and then there are superdelegates. Ignore those

Besides that there are two kinds of delegates. District delegates, and pledged delegates.

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 7) District delegates are delegates assigned by, essentially, congressional district, county, it varies and is a bit unclear. Basically, cities get more delegates than rural areas. If you win the district, you win the delegates from that district.

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 8) To note, as there's no way to figure out polls at the district level, I broke the district delegates down by % for each of the top 4 candidates. I'll quantify this later, as ultimately even THIS isn't totally accurate and boosts some people more than they should be.

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 9) Then, there's the pledged, aka state-wide delegates. They're divided amongst candidates proportionately, but there's a caveat; to get ANY state pledged delegates, you have to hit 15%.

This will be key later.

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 10) Ok, we got all that out of the way, let me post the tables I made.

We have the polling %'s I used, and the delegate counts.

For the delegate counts, again for simplicity, I divided the district delegates by poll %, and then did the same for pledged total IF above 15%.

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 10.5) Sidenote, IF functions in excel are FUCKING AWESOME.

=IF(B2>0.15, (B2*G17), 0)+(B2*F17)

B2 was a % (biden in iowa), g17 was the pledged delegates total in iowa f17 the district.

Ie, IF biden's above 15%, he gets his % in pledged, and he gets his % in district regardless.

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 11) Ok, Excel nerd shit out of the way. Crack open the bourbon. We're doing this analysis LIVE MOTHERFUCKERS.

First, the first 4 Dem Primary states, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.

Iowa and New Hampshire are the ONLY TWO STATES Buttgeiger has any real traction.

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 12) Now, you might think to yourself, hey, maybe he's just focusing on the two earliest ones to try to build some traction, right?

Well, sure. There may be an argument for that. But here's the problem; he's BELOW the 15% threshold in Nevada and South Carolina.

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 13) Sure, if he can turn those 7%'s he has in each into a few delegates, ie winning a rural district or two, maybe, MAYBE. But the problem is, Biden has a COMMANDING lead in both of those states, and will suck up many of the pledged delegates. Look at the First 4 delegate totals

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 14) Biden 39, Sanders 29, Warren 25, Buttgeiger 18.

"Well surely that's not bad, right? Right?"

Ok. So he stays alive through the first 4, has half the delegates that Biden does. Good job.

After that, he's literally fucking TOAST.

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 15) Out of the Super Tuesday states with polls collected, California is the ONLY ONE that he has above 6 fucking %.

At 9.6% maybe 10 if you round up, that's not enough for him to conceivably win ANY DISTRICTS. THAT'S the only way he's getting ANY delegates in CA with this model

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 16) Chances are he wins zero districts if he's only got 10% support in fucking California of all places, and in the other polled super tuesday states he's fucking cratered to 6% or less.

He doesn't get pledged OR district delegates, probably.

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 17) The Super Tuesday delegate totals, IF he translates any of his support into actual delegate counts?

200 for biden, 121 for bernie, 157 for warren, 42 for Buttgeiger.

HE'S AT 1/3 BERNIE'S TOTAL.

MAYBE.

IF HE CAN MAKE ANY OF THOSE 6% SUPPORTS DELEGATES.

WHICH HE CAN'T.

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 18) I'm dead serious, right now the way things are today (and much of this polling is from Oct and Nov), the only way he'd have any delegates is if he wins a few districts in Iowa and New Hampshire which is where he gets support above 10%

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 19) By the time we get past Super Tuesday, the only state he has ANY support in is Wisconsin, and he remains cratered for support in every other polled state. The tentative modeled delegate counts there? 206 biden, 92 Sanders, 106 Warren, 31 BUTTGEIGER.

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 20) 31 potential delegates for buttgeiger out of those 5 states, which INCLUDES New York, and 9 of those are out of WI, which is the only state that might realistically translate into delegates for him since he's at least CLOSE to 15%

You think 6% support will get him ANY in NY?

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 21) The TL;DR: The way the Democrat Primaries are structured, if they were held today, Buttigeig is fucked more than a 16 year old at a Prince Harry party hosted by Epstein. There are THREE STATES he might get ANY delegates, and the rest he's relying on sniping districts.

@Barnes_Law @RealClearNews 22) Buttigieg right now is not viable per the rules of the Democrat primary, and barring the media engaging in a coordinated effort to boost him like they tried to Warren, aka The Buttplugging (as opposed to The Warrening), he's hosed.

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