Thread by @DaveKeating

Thread: The UK Parliament is set to approve Boris Johnson's #Brexit deal in one hour.

It was thought Johnson's large majority in #GeneralElection2019 could allow him to defy the hardline ERG faction and be more flexible for an EU free trade deal.

But the opposite is happening.

Johnson is still promising “no quotas, no tariffs, no dumping”.

But the bill the parliament is about to approve, which rules out extending negotiations past end 2020, means an FTA with no tariffs now impossible.

A full FTA cannot be negotiated in 11 months.

Brussels is responding by recalibrating its post-Brexit expectations, according to sources.

The landing zone is now expected to be a minor partnership, nothing like the Canada-style FTA promised.

Come 2021, Canada will have less tariffs on trade with the the EU than the UK.

Are we heading for a complete no-deal crash-out at end 2020? Perhaps not, if expectations are majorly lowered now.

But the post-#Brexit arrangement would be so minor that it could still cause an economic crash, even if some kind of deal is agreed.

Not no-deal, but slow-deal.

The Parliament voted 358 to 234 to approve Johnson's #WithdrawalAgreement.

But he's added a key provision - forbidding an extension of the transition period after end 2020.

Brussels worries this means we are hurtling toward a #NoDealBrexit or a #FauxDealBrexit in one year.