People say that 2016 was largely decided by voters who disliked both Clinton and Trump and voted overwhelmingly for Trump.
In 2020, the reverse might happen.
In the last month of Economist/YouGov polls, voters who dislike both Biden & Trump pick Biden by a 60 point margin.
In 2020, the reverse might happen.
In the last month of Economist/YouGov polls, voters who dislike both Biden & Trump pick Biden by a 60 point margin.
The numbers among voters who dislike both Sanders and Biden or dislike Warren and Biden, etc. are similar.
Suggests that the narrative that people who disapprove of Trump might vote for him anyway is kinda BS. Indeed, only 2% of them say they'll vote for Trump next year (vs 4% of approvers who say they'll vote Dem). The real Q is whether disapprovers will vote 3rd party or stay home.
Er, sorry -- yes
And Trump's approval rating among what we might call "dual disapprovers" is 8% approve 90% disapprove
SO anyways yeah these stories where a reporter interviews like 4 voters who dislike Trump and Sanders but say they'd vote for Biden (and therefore imply that Dems should vote for Biden) are pretty misleading.
Trump disapprovers are mostly going to vote for whoever isn't Trump, & the marginal differences by candidate (we're talking .5-1% on vote share) are pretty darn small and impossible to disentangle from other socio-political factors (ie racial conservatism, immigration attitudes).
