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The frustrating thing about the #RCP85 discussion is how many still refer to RCP8.5 as “Business-As-Usual”.

RCP8.5 results from assuming "no climate policy" in a "fossil fuel intensive" scenario.

There are many other no climate policy baselines, all lower than RCP8.5...

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The whole problem is that RCP8.5 has been incorrectly interpreted as BAU (& no one did anything about it)...

It is not correct to say "we were on RCP8.5, now we are on RCPx.x", as we will never know if we were on RCP8.5. Maybe we were on a RCP4.5?



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Scenarios are constantly updated to be consistent with recent trends. What scenario are we following now? 🤔

You can play with all the latest scenario data from the SSP database... tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Acti…

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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
Who thinks climate impacts in a 3-5°C world are zero? ...or a 1°C world (today)?

This is what the SSPs assume, by design.

To believe #RCP85 you need
* World that prioritises fossil fuels
* Zero climate policy to 2100
* Zero climate impacts to 2100

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link.springer.com/article/10.100…
The same is true for low-mitigation pathways, even when climate policy is assumed.

RCP1.9 or RCP2.6 (1.5°C or 2°C) generally use loads of Bioenergy with CCS, but it is assumed that a 2°C world has no climate impacts on that bioenergy (or food & agriculture, or forestry).

2/
This is a methodological design choice. The SSPs are meant to be 'modular' & have climate policies & climate impacts added.

In practice, mitigation pathways don't consider feedbacks from climate impacts (in the vast majority of studies).

3/
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
This will confuse you...

If we continue our dismal climate policy efforts from 2030 to 2100, we are set for 2.7°C-2.9°C in 2100 (but will keep rising after 2100).

Just imagine if we tried to reduce emissions: 2.5°C is no problem, 2°C maybe, ...

1/
thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…
How can this be the case, when the news is full of dire consequences?

This is because climate impacts are often projected (& communicated) with a scenario call RCP8.5, which is deliberately structured to use fossil fuels & has *no* climate policy until 2100.

2/
The new incarnation of RCP8.5 is called SSP5-85, and SSP5 is actually named "Fossil-fueled Development – Taking the Highway"

If you consider a world where some countries do move away from fossil fuels & some countries even have climate policy, then emissions are much lower!

3/
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
How does the 0.6% projected growth in CO₂ emissions for 2019 look against trends of the last decade?
* GDP growth was 0.5% points lower
* CO₂/GDP improved 0.1% points lower
* CO₂ growth was 0.6% points lower

➡️Weaker GDP growth explains slower emissions growth in 2019

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I was inspired to make this figure after @MLiebreich predicted CO₂ would fall in 2019


In February, I made a GDP based projection: a 2019 decline in emissions would require an unprecedented drop in CO₂/GDP (green, far right)

2/
Through 2019, the IMF has constantly revised down GDP estimates, 3.5%, then 3.3%, and now 3%. We also updated our emissions data!

I redid the projection in June (GDP growth 3.3%), a decline in 2019 was still looking unlikely.

3/
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Jehane 🍂🍁🌰
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Obama meddled in the DNC chair race via his transportation secretary which gave us Tom Perez as DNC chairperson.

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Sheldon Whitehouse
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Patrick Galey
@patrickgaley
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