Thread by @ClimateBen

Extinction is now.

1. 'birds and other animals cannot adapt fast enough to keep pace with climate change'

2. 'most land animals will not be able to evolve quickly enough to adapt'

3. 'fish species won't be able to evolve fast enough'

4. 'insects face calamitous habitat loss'

By the 2030s, Earth will have warmed ~2°C in the space of just 250 years.

It would appear that there is no record of ecosystems or species in the geologic past surviving this rate of change.

news.stanford.edu/news/2013/augu…

'most land animals will not be able to evolve quickly enough to adapt to the dramatically warmer climate... Many species face extinction, as a result.' theguardian.com/environment/20…

'With fewer ways to seek refuge from warming, ocean-dwelling species are disappearing from their habitats at twice the rate of those on land'.

nationalgeographic.com/environment/20…

'an international team of scientists reviewed more than 10,000 published climate change studies and has reached a sobering conclusion. Birds and other animals cannot adapt fast enough to keep pace with climate change' eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2…

'fish species won't be able to evolve fast enough to keep up, so the likely impacts include significant local extinctions'

insideclimatenews.org/news/24042019/…

'habitat loss could rob half of all insects of over half their habitat. Other creatures, too, could suffer in a 3°C warmer world.'

climatenewsnetwork.net/insects-face-c…

'plant extinctions will surpass background rates by several thousand times over the next 80 years.'qz.com/africa/1694276…

'for the MAJORITY of animals and plants, 3.2°C of warming would mean having most of their habitat wiped out entirely.'

We will most likely go over 3°C at some point between 2045 and 2145. I suspect this will happen before 2070, but of course I can't know.
qz.com/1280872/keepin…

'it will take mammals 3-5 million years just to diversify enough to regenerate the branches of the evolutionary tree that they are expected to lose over the next 50 years.' phys.org/news/2018-10-m…

Extinctions set to become much more prevalent as global warming increases further by roughly 2-fold to 5-fold in coming decades:

'local extinctions related to climate change are already widespread, even though levels of climate change so far are modest...'journals.plos.org/plosbiology/ar…

'it seems hard to think that there will not be many global extinctions'

news.mongabay.com/2017/03/climat…

'Analysis of 266 insects, amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles, suggests many face extinction.'
independent.co.uk/news/science/c…

The high level of extinction risk of the tropical African flora:

"Thirty-three percent of the species are potentially threatened with extinction, and another third of species are likely rare, potentially becoming threatened in the near future".

independent.co.uk/environment/af…

There are 13 articles in this thread covering 7 scientific studies.

The newest climate models suggest 2°C by 2040 and 3°C a couple of decades later.
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https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1195709431989854209?s=19

We hit 1.5°C by 2024 - 2033, and 2°C by 2030 - 2045:

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agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
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nature.com/articles/d4158…
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grist.org/article/welcom…
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scientificamerican.com/article/earth-…

Explore these threads for more on moving into the climate chaos of 1.5°C, followed soon after by 2°C and beyond to 3°C - 4°C.

https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1205985246031863808?s=19