Thread by @MiKeMeUpP

[THREAD] In the second part of my regression deep dive, I explore WRs.

I use a similar methodology as my RB regression deep dive. If you haven’t seen that yet, please check it out in the link below.

Without further to do, here’s my 2019 WR regression deep dive...

https://twitter.com/mikemeupp/status/1212873113769144320

Step 1: TD dependency

The table below shows how top 15 WRs would’ve scored without the points from TDs.

This highlights the most TD reliant:
- Golladay
- Kupp
- Parker

And the least TD reliant:
- Woods 👀
- Landry
- Moore

Step 2: TD scoring distribution

Likelihood of TD being scored grows substantially the closer players get to the GL. This is evident in the averages below.

The table shows % of TDs scored within 20/10/5 yards.

Lower % can be viewed as less sticky.

Step 2: TD scoring distribution (cont.)

Based ONLY on the prior table, these are POTENTIAL candidates for regression:

- Cooper
- Golladay
- Godwin
- Moore
- Hopkins

Meanwhile, TDs for below are easier to sustain:

- Thomas
- Jones
- Robinson
- Edelman
- Landry

Step 3: Red Zone efficiency

Below is a table that shows # of attempts and corresponding conversion % for each player within 20/10/5 yards.

Potential “-“ regression:

- Cooper
- Jones
- Hopkins

Potential “+” regression:

- Allen
- Edelman
- Landry
- Woods
- Moore

Here is a summary of potential regression in each of the categories for each player.

Next, I’ll add further context by evaluating each player on an individual basis instead of just comparing to averages because contrary to popular belief, some players are better than avg.

J Jones 📉
- didn’t think I’d say this for JJ but all signs point to neg TD regression
- not only is he above the top 15 avg, he is well above his career % which are #notgood
- seems like the narrative of his struggles in RZ have some merit
- add in his age and I’m selling

D. Hopkins 🤷‍♂️
- Initial glance shows that there is potential for Nuk to be hit with regression from both TD dist and RZ efficiency based on both top 15 and career avgs
- what jumps out is how little vol he received in 2019, which should increase
- I’m holding, but concerned

A Cooper 📉
- the most screaming regression candidate to me out of the entire list
- if you follow me, you know I’ve been a truther since day 1 so this pains me
- he is well above expectations in all departments and should get hit by regression...hard
- I’m selling for top value

K Allen 📈
- Remember when KA was washed and Mike Will was the guy? Good times
- not only did he put together another great szn, there is room to grow as he is operating at well below career RZ efficiency metrics
- I’m buying without hesitation as he’s still in his prime

R Woods 📈
- one of the most undervalued fantasy assets around
- not only is he not TD dependent, signs point to positive TD regression for Woods based on both top 15 and career avgs
- And the good news? He can be had for dirt cheap. Send out a low 1st
- I’m buying all day

D. Moore 🤷‍♂️
- despite having some abysmal RZ efficiency metrics this year, that was somehow still better than his rookie year
- not sure what to make of this as results are likely skewed by super small sample sizes
- I’m holding to see bigger sample before calling him Julio

J Landry 👌
- summary suggests positive regression but last yr in CLE disagrees
- MIA > some room for improvement, although that’s skewed by his huge TD year in 2017
- so just depends on which Jarvis you think we’ll get
- I’m buying, cause he’s cheap and worth the risk

Hope you all enjoyed. There’s a lot more that I’ll be covering in article format in the coming weeks in a series given limitations on Twitter.

Just wanted to get this info out to you all in the meantime.

Be on the lookout for the articles and HMU with any questions!