@pdnetwork is pushing for a #peacekeeping mission in #Libya . I fear it’s mainly out of desperation to get Italy back in the country rather than a thought-out approach to the crisis. A couple of strategic considerations.
1. To get Tripoli and Haftar on board is not enough. Without the consent of every militia and internal opposition, it will turn into a counterinsurgency operation. Is the EU prepared to be associated with a massive military occupation?
2. It also means to cooperate with the GNA and other military actors. It will be hard to force them to not commit human rights violation, and the following fallout will be hard to manage. Is our public opinion ready for such difficult partners? Is Europe?
3. Peacekeeping by interposition force is a very expensive band-aid. Without social, institutional and infrastructural reform violence is due to continue. Peacekeeping only freezes conflicts, but if we want it to end it will require lengthy negotiations.
4. It may get Italy back to the table by justifying a force deployment, but there’s no guarantee other actors will allow it. It will if it’s perceived as an impartial force, and Italy has tried to act as a mediator for a while, notably w/ Turkey...
5. ...But by doing so it burned its relationship with Serraj. #peacekeeping is useful but needs to be framed in a wider effort.
