Beyond excited to see this poll from @sfcpoll & his WAPO team on just black Americans. In terms of the Dem primary, this gives us our ONLY comprehensive view of where black voters sit (outside just SC) heading into the IA Caucus. And this is CRITICAL bc if the numbers reflected
here between Biden & Sanders remain stable (and they may not, more on that in a sec) then even if Biden trails Sanders, Warren, and Pete in IA & NH, he still has potential to bounce back starting w SC and rolling into Super Tuesday. 
The divide between Biden & Sanders among black voters is the exact same divide as the one between them among all voters: age. Young voters overwhelmingly prefer Sanders. Everyone else, Biden. Here's what we know based on my research. We know turnout among the under 34 crowd is
to be better than it was in 2016's Dem primary, bc it's been up in every election, everywhere since Trump. How much is going to be crucial for Sanders' efforts. He had the same advantage w younger black voters in '16 but he got hammered among the aggregated black vote bc young
voters made up a small portion of the pool. That said, we also know from my voter file analysis (forthcoming) that turnout also went up, albeit in smaller amounts, among older voters. So that eats some of those gains. And the other issue that Sanders faces is the influx I am
expecting into the primary of less-ideological voters. In other words, this cycle's primary turnout should be high. Higher than '16 certainly. On the D side, potentially higher than the super high turnout of '08. And the total lack of a competitive R primary means that in states
with open primaries, more moderate/Indie voters are more likely to cast ballots in the Dem primary than they would be if they had to choose between voting in a competitive R primary and a competitive D primary, like in '16. You also have the potential for more strategic voters:
Rs voting in the D primary in order to push an extreme nominee because of their belief it helps Trump OR Rs voting in the D primary for a more moderate nominee as a "safety valve:" although I should tell you, this type of person is rare, strategic voting is not common.
Now, I want to preface this last analysis w a reminder that it is my belief that what questions like this largely capture, due to low info about the lower name ID candidates is uncertainty about who the candidate is gen.medium.com/electability-p…
so w that in mind, w it in mind that likely a good portion of this is voters' lack of info about the rest of the field, it is interesting that so many black voters state that if Biden is not the nominee, they will not vote. We hear a lot about possible defection of progressives
or about possible defection of the Never Trump people, but have never heard anything about the same possibility among black voters. In the end, I think the variation is a product of name ID but if the average is 6% willingness to sit out, it suggests Ds should not ignore black
turnout regardless of who the nominee is. Especially if the ticket ends up lacking descriptive representation.
I should add: this data set also verifies what we already know despite Trump campaign claims to the contrary. Black voters despise Donald Trump and will not be breaking more in his favor than any other recent R POTUS.
