Thread by @MesMitch

Libya ceasefire in doubt as rival forces accuse each other of breaches
Warring sides also plan to deploy more troops despite Russian-Turkish brokered deal

A Russian-Turkish brokered ceasefire between the two warring groups in Libya was struggling to take hold in Tripoli as both sides accused the other of breaches and laid out plans to mobilize more forces.

In a breakthrough on Saturday, both sides in the civil war – the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA), based in Tripoli, and the Libyan National Army (LNA) forces led from the east of Libya by Gen Haftar – agreed to a ceasefire proposed last week by Russia and Turkey

Both Russia and Turkey have small forces in the country, with Russia backing Haftar through the use of mercenaries and Turkey supporting the GNA with military advisers.

The Turkish ministry of defence insisted the ceasefire was holding, adding that the situation in Libya was “calm except for one or two isolated incidents”.

However, both Libyan sides claimed otherwise. “The [GNA] militias violated the truce on more than one battlefront, with all types of weapons,” said the LNA commander, Al-Mabrouk al-Gazawi, who added that forces were waiting for further instruction from LNA general command.

The army also claimed to have downed a Turkish drone.The GNA said in a statement it had recorded violations by “the aggressor’s militias” but that it “renews its commitment to the ceasefire, and emphasises the need for commitment from the patrons of this ceasefire and the

United Nations mission in Libya in applying it optimally”.Haftar has been trying to oust the GNA from Tripoli since April, and the Turkish president, Erdoğan, surprisingly offered to send troops last month, saying it was vital that the weakened GNA was not overrun.

At stake is not only Libya’s vast oil wealth and the future of African migration into Europe, but also the geopolitical orientation of north Africa. Turkey claims it is trying to prevent Libya from turning into an authoritarian, anti-Islamist state.

Opponents of the Turkish intervention claim Erdoğan is in fact trying to secure Mediterranean gas supplies and turn Libya into a client Ottoman state. With both sides in Libya largely composed of decentralised militia, the difficulties in policing a ceasefire are multiplied.

a Libyan at the Clingendael Institute think tank, warned of a near diplomatic free-for-all in which the Italian government of Guiseppe Conte was losing out. “The process by which Turkey and Russia are taking the diplomatic space is ruthless and largely irreversible,” he said.

“Turkey and Russia aren’t allies. But they are too shrewd and too realistic to make the mistake of undermining each other or acting like full-blown enemies. Both Turkey and Russia understand that the US is in the process of withdrawing from the Middle East over the long run.

“They also both understand that the Europeans continue to rely on America and therefore are easy to trample and elbow out.

“Within that context, Italy is not sure what to do when it comes to Libya. Under the second Conte government – since early September – it has almost fully aligned with France, a strong supporter of Haftar.

But the Europeans betting heavily on Haftar and refusing to curb the Emiratis’ illegal intervention in Libya has only led to an assertive Turkey, which last month officially announced an overt military intervention.

“Erdoğan’s Libya decision is viewed as a catastrophe by the Europeans.”

Italy is trying to recover lost ground by proposing a trilateral commission with Turkey and Russia to secure peace in Libya, an idea Conte will pursue in talks with Erdoğan on Monday.

The former Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi criticised the performance of the Italian government in Libya, saying it was not surprising that Russia and Turkey were taking advantage.

He said: “Italy must reaffirm its role in the Mediterranean and in Libya in particular. We must say forcefully that we will not allow Erdoğan and the Turks to replace us as interlocutors in Libya.”

The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, visited Moscow on Saturday partly to discuss Libya.

The 🇷🇺n president, Vladimir Putin, has insisted any 🇷🇺n forces in Libya are freelancing, saying: “If there are 🇷🇺ns there, they do not represent the interests of the 🇷🇺 state

Germany is due to hold a Libyan peace conference in Berlin, at which as many as 11 states who are intervening in the country will be required to pledge they will cease to do so.