There has been a lot of discussion about what exactly it would take for China to achieve the 2020 target of doubling 2010 GDP now that the NBS have revised the 2014-18 numbers . For those who are interested, here are the newly-revised GDP growth rates for the past ten years:
2019 -- 6.10%
2018 -- 6.70%
2017 -- 6.90%
2016 -- 6.80%
2015 -- 7.00%
2014 -- 7.40%
2013 -- 7.80%
2012 -- 7.90%
2011 -- 9.60%
For China to double its real GDP over the previous ten years, 2020’s GDP growth rate would have to come in at just above 5.6%.
I had been...
2018 -- 6.70%
2017 -- 6.90%
2016 -- 6.80%
2015 -- 7.00%
2014 -- 7.40%
2013 -- 7.80%
2012 -- 7.90%
2011 -- 9.60%
For China to double its real GDP over the previous ten years, 2020’s GDP growth rate would have to come in at just above 5.6%.
I had been...
...hoping (but not really expecting) that Beijing would allow reported GDP to drop this year to 5.5-5.6% – which is still way too high but at least moving more quickly in the right direction – but Beijing seems to be targeting something between 5.8% and 6.0%.
These are small...
These are small...
...nominal differences, and inevitably some very confused person will point out that either way this represents a huge share of global growth (as if China’s reported GDP growth rate was in any way comparable to GDP growth rates of countries that do not set and enforce GDP...
...growth targets), but whether Chinese GDP “growth” comes in at 5.6% or 5.9% tells us very little about the Chinese economy. What it mostly says is how much credit must grow and how quickly Beijing can overcome domestic politics and set about fixing the underlying economy.
