Thread by @Oliver_Geden

Looking at the RCP8.5/BAU debate so far (as a trained anthropologist of knowledge), here's my take how it will probably evolve.
A short THREAD
1/n

Probably first one to identify the problem of unrealistic (high #coal) assumptions behind RCP8.5 was @jritch.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl… He even got high-level media coverage, by @eroston bloomberg.com/news/articles/… But in academia, who really cares about a Ph.D student's findings?
2/n

Then @RogerPielkeJr developed an interest, mainly in dominant use of RCP8.5 in impact studies. issues.org/opening-up-the… Then more pieces, and on Twitter rogerpielkejr.com/2020/01/27/qui…
But when it comes from Roger, not much of a chance that mainstream will acknowledge the problem
3/n

Meanwhile, @hausfath joined the debate, w/ a @carbonbrief explainer. carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-… Now academics really start to take it seriously, but there's no easy way to deal with it (e.g., because of path dependencies in modelling). But it wasn't a peer-reviewed paper anyway
4/n

@hausfath @CarbonBrief So, what's next? Given their engagement on Twitter, I'd expect more from @hausfath or @Peters_Glen, or maybe somebody else. They are what Pierre Bourdieu called "established heretics" (in 'Homo Academicus') - often seen as troublemakers, but to powerful to completely ignore.
5/n

@hausfath @CarbonBrief @Peters_Glen I guess it will take some more years until more powerful insiders, belonging to the core modelling groups, reformulate the heretics' earlier criticism and show practical ways out of it
Basically the same happened in the CDR/BECCS debate

https://twitter.com/Oliver_Geden/status/1221801559379582977

6/n

@hausfath @CarbonBrief @Peters_Glen Meanwhile, the STS community will have a field day, some only commenting from the sidelines, some trying to conduct serious empirical studies, like these
sciencedirect.com/science/articl… & sciencetechnologystudies.journal.fi/article/view/6… Focus might move from IAMs to other MIPs
7/n

@hausfath @CarbonBrief @Peters_Glen The visible turning point will be the AR7 version of this article geosci-model-dev.net/9/3461/2016/ and the modelling practice following from there
8/n

@hausfath @CarbonBrief @Peters_Glen Looking back from 2030, RCP8.5 might seem like just another academic debate. There's criticism, there's responsiveness, there's progress. But there are also power structures (like in any professional field). Hopefully, some social scientists will manage to track the moves
9/end