I.... kinda lost my excel sheet. And the polls I WANTED to use, specifically the DMR poll, for Iowa kinda... well, they kinda didn't get released because FUCK CNN.
That being said, placing, I predict the rankings as Bernie-Biden-Buttigieg-Warren/Bloomberg.
That being said, placing, I predict the rankings as Bernie-Biden-Buttigieg-Warren/Bloomberg.
If I have to give specific breakdowns, then Bernie and Biden are going to be in the 30-40% range; the higher one is, the lower the other will be. If they're both 30% or so, then we'll see Buttigieg, then Warren OR Bloomberg hit 15% or so each. Only 4 will get delegates from Iowa.
This is due to the fucked up Iowa caucus system which I honestly don't understand why it's still used because it looks inefficient as FUCK. It basically guarantees anyone with an early lead the first vote will draw in most 2nd round support, makes the real fight the 15% threshold
Basically, they do a first round of 'voting'. After the first round, anyone who voted for people that didn't hit 15% get to vote a second time, usually to draw more support to their candidate. NORMALLY, this would keep going until there's no one with at least 15% of the vote left
HOWEVER, it got changed so there's only 2 rounds now. I imagine this was done specifically to keep Bernie from soaking up a ton of support and running away with the nomination.
Bernie, Buttigieg, and Warren also probably have the most developed ground games in Iowa.
Bernie, Buttigieg, and Warren also probably have the most developed ground games in Iowa.
With only 2 rounds of voting, I don't imagine that Warren, Bloomberg, or Buttigieg will have enough time to ALL grab 15%. This makes the delegate split better for Biden, who's going for raw numbers to minimize the gap between him and Bernie.
The REAL smart move for Biden would be to cross the 15% threshold the first round, and then have the field campaign workers rally as much support to Yang, Gabbard, etc. With only 2 rounds, every vote that goes to one of those candidates is a vote that's NOT going to Bernie.
You get delegates, and then you keep your top opponent, Bernie, from getting as many as possible. Biden can close the delegate gap once he gets past NH and Iowa. South Carolina, Texas, Nevada, etc he's got a MASSIVE poll lead. He just has to minize Iowa's losses.
I would try to remake the predictive model, but I've had a sinus infection and strep throat that knocked me on my ass, and with the DMR poll getting yeeted away, I just wouldn't be able to guarantee even a basic level of accuracy.
Apologies.
/end
Apologies.
/end
