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First ballot vs. after realignment

Sanders 24% —> 25% (+1)

Buttigieg 21% —> 27% (+6)

Warren 19% —> 18% (-1)

Biden 15% —> 16% (+1)

The numbers are messy but two takeaways...

1/2
1) Bernie has solid support from a core base but is few people’s second choice

2) Everyone other than Bernie would likely benefit from anyone else in the top five dropping out

2/2
Note: these are based on the delegate percents I saw. Raw vote counts are slightly different.
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More from @HoarseWisperer see all

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The Hoarse Whisperer
@HoarseWisperer
I like data and am a bit of an analytic dork by nature, so I’ve been watching the deeper metrics of candidate second choices for a while now.

The conventional wisdom is that Warren and Sanders split a pool of voters who would largely migrate to Sanders if Warren dropped out.
1/5
I have seen no data which supports that theory.

Warren’s supporters are largely team players. A recent poll showed *100%* of them would back the nominee whomever it was.

Only just over 50% of Sanders supporters said the same.

2/5
When Warren supporters are asked - or were forced in Iowa - to pick a second choice, Sanders gains little or nothing on other candidates.

As has been a widely held view for a very long time, Sanders is polarizing with a low ceiling.

A pop. in the 25% range strongly prefer him.
Read 7 tweets
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The Hoarse Whisperer
@HoarseWisperer
Something in my house is beeping every 15 minutes. I have no idea where or what it is.

It is driving me to madness.
Note: it is not a smoke detector.

It sounds like a watch or other small device. It chirps just loud enough to be heard but not found.

I may have to burn my house down.
Update: It was the battery backup for my phone service.

I can now discontinue soaking rags in kerosene in preparation for reducing my home to cinders.
Read 3 tweets
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The Hoarse Whisperer
@HoarseWisperer
My Iowa prediction is based on the Dumbest Possible Outcome (DPO) theory.

The DPO, which I just invented, holds that a healthy number of voters will deliberately or unintentionally do the most worst thing possible in terms of actually winning in November.

1/
Under the DPO, the worst possible outcome would be:

- Sanders wins
- A muddled near-tie of multiple others in second place
- An array of campaigns come out of it insisting they “won” in some way
- Each uses that as fuel to press on vote-splitting in other primaries

2/
- All while no campaign actually picked up an important number of delegates amounting to anything of consequence

And finally:

- The media runs wild with the narratives that Sanders is the presumptive nominee but it’s still a wide-open horse race

3/
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Ian56
@Ian56789
Hillary, Obama & Google cronies built the "Shadow" app to hide the Iowa Caucus results to ensure they could be rigged.

The team are still working to doctor the results as Iowa is a disaster for the Corporate Dems.

Hanging chads are being imported from Florida.

#IowaCaucuses
Bernie Sanders releases their internal results from first 40% of precincts reporting.

This shows Bernie winning BIG & Joe Biden BELOW the 15% threshold & on the cusp of going home with NOTHING.

No wonder Hillary's Techies at Dem HQ are still doctoring the results

#IowaCaucuses
After partly funding the "Shadow" app, built by Hillary, Obama & Google cronies to enable doctoring of the vote counts, Mayor Pete declares "victory" after ZERO official results are announced.

Nothing to see here - move along.

#MayorCheat
#IowaCaucuses
Read 5 tweets
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Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
BREAKING: Sanders Campaign Releases First 40% of Iowa Results

Note: the results below are INCOMPLETE results from the first—apparently only—40% of precincts with data available.

Sanders: 30%
Buttigieg: 25%
Warren: 21%
Biden: 12%
Klobuchar: 11%

We'll see if the numbers hold up.
ANALYSIS/ If you watched TV last night, you presumed a Sanders win based on what you saw and were stunned when Buttigieg declared himself the victor. It looks like a *real* fight for second between Warren/Buttigieg. Note I'm also considering the results CNN/MSNBC *did* broadcast.
ANALYSIS2/ My thinking in sharing the Sanders data tonight is that I'm a fairness guy, and *someone*—either Sanders, Buttigieg, or Warren—is being denied good press tonight. That's just wrong—especially when the fact that Biden and Klobuchar were not in the top three seems clear.
Read 15 tweets
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Eldon Katz
@eldon_katz
From new @EmersonPolling NH poll (thread)

Top candidates for people who have made up their mind about who to support-

Sanders 29%
Buttigieg 20%
Biden 14%
Warren 14%
Klobuchar 13%

Source: emersonpolling.com/wp-content/upl…
Also from new @EmersonPolling NH poll

Top candidates for people who are voting on actual issues as opposed to what the media spoon-fed to them about "electability"

Sanders 26%
Buttigieg 19%
Warren 15%
Yang 9%
Gabbard 8%
Biden 6% 👈👈👈

Source: emersonpolling.com/wp-content/upl…
Also from new @EmersonPolling NH poll

Among those who say that Trump’s assassination of Soleimani was NOT justified-

Sanders 30%
Warren 19%
Buttigieg 15%
Biden 13%

Among those who say that it was-
Buttigieg 21%
Sanders 16%
Biden 15%
Warren 5%

Source: emersonpolling.com/wp-content/upl…
Read 19 tweets
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Eldon Katz
@eldon_katz
From new Emerson poll of New Hampshire, the landline primary vs the non-landline primary-

Landline:
Buttigieg 29%
Sanders 17%
Biden 16%
Warren 13%

Non-Landline:
Sanders 41%
Warren 15%
Buttigieg 10%
Biden 9%

Source: emersonpolling.com/wp-content/upl…
Also from new Emerson poll of New Hampshire-

% of candidates' supporters who think that billionaires SHOULD exist:

Buttigieg 64%
Biden 50%
Warren 38%
Sanders 26%

Source: emersonpolling.com/wp-content/upl…
Also from new Emerson poll of New Hampshire-

Top candidates with women:
Sanders 30%
Buttigieg 23%
Warren 17%
Biden 14%
Harris 3%
Gabbard 3%

Top candidates with men:
Sanders 22%
Buttigieg 21%
Biden 14%
Gabbard 10%
Warren 9%
Yang 9%

Source: emersonpolling.com/wp-content/upl…
Read 8 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
THREAD
Response to #Biden skipping the California Dems is scathing.

Biden's "refusal to show up only reinforces the idea that he’s an elitist and he is more interested in collecting big checks in CA than being in genuine touch with grassroots activists."
usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
#Buttigieg and #Warren took Biden on.
Buttigieg said that "the riskiest thing we could do is try to play it safe.... In these times, Democrats can no more promise to take us back to the 2000s or 1990s than conservatives can take us back to the 1950s.”

usatoday.com/story/news/pol… …
#Warren: “Some Democrats in Washington believe the only changes we can get are tweaks & nudges.If they dream at all, they dream small.Some say if we’d all just calm down, Republicans will come to their senses. Our country is in a time of crisis. The time for small ideas is over.”
Read 9 tweets

Trending hashtags

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