I like data and am a bit of an analytic dork by nature, so I’ve been watching the deeper metrics of candidate second choices for a while now.
The conventional wisdom is that Warren and Sanders split a pool of voters who would largely migrate to Sanders if Warren dropped out.
1/5
The conventional wisdom is that Warren and Sanders split a pool of voters who would largely migrate to Sanders if Warren dropped out.
1/5
I have seen no data which supports that theory.
Warren’s supporters are largely team players. A recent poll showed *100%* of them would back the nominee whomever it was.
Only just over 50% of Sanders supporters said the same.
2/5
Warren’s supporters are largely team players. A recent poll showed *100%* of them would back the nominee whomever it was.
Only just over 50% of Sanders supporters said the same.
2/5
When Warren supporters are asked - or were forced in Iowa - to pick a second choice, Sanders gains little or nothing on other candidates.
As has been a widely held view for a very long time, Sanders is polarizing with a low ceiling.
A pop. in the 25% range strongly prefer him.
As has been a widely held view for a very long time, Sanders is polarizing with a low ceiling.
A pop. in the 25% range strongly prefer him.
A far larger number prefers someone else and then someone else after them long before they’d migrate to Sanders.
Iowa bore this out.
Were there fewer in the race, Sanders would have done worse rather than better no matter who it was you took out of the mix.
4/5
Iowa bore this out.
Were there fewer in the race, Sanders would have done worse rather than better no matter who it was you took out of the mix.
4/5
Bernie’s theory of the race is that he can win by:
1) Counting on the demographic with the lowest turnout to outvote the demos with the highest turnout
2) Winning over Dems who prefer other candidates
Neither of those proved true in Iowa despite caucus biases in his favor.
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1) Counting on the demographic with the lowest turnout to outvote the demos with the highest turnout
2) Winning over Dems who prefer other candidates
Neither of those proved true in Iowa despite caucus biases in his favor.
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One postscript: while there aren’t many Dem head-to-head polls, in this one, Biden has a bigger lead over Sanders than even Clinton had.
Bernie’s low ceiling is being masked by the number of other candidates in the race.
Bernie’s low ceiling is being masked by the number of other candidates in the race.
Bernie’s path requires vote-splitting for as long as possible.
A primary where the nominee failed to coalesce support and instead benefitted from too many candidates running for too long would be a recipe for problems in the general.
A primary where the nominee failed to coalesce support and instead benefitted from too many candidates running for too long would be a recipe for problems in the general.
