BREAKING: Sanders Campaign Releases First 40% of Iowa Results
Note: the results below are INCOMPLETE results from the first—apparently only—40% of precincts with data available.
Sanders: 30%
Buttigieg: 25%
Warren: 21%
Biden: 12%
Klobuchar: 11%
We'll see if the numbers hold up.
Note: the results below are INCOMPLETE results from the first—apparently only—40% of precincts with data available.
Sanders: 30%
Buttigieg: 25%
Warren: 21%
Biden: 12%
Klobuchar: 11%
We'll see if the numbers hold up.
ANALYSIS/ If you watched TV last night, you presumed a Sanders win based on what you saw and were stunned when Buttigieg declared himself the victor. It looks like a *real* fight for second between Warren/Buttigieg. Note I'm also considering the results CNN/MSNBC *did* broadcast.
ANALYSIS2/ My thinking in sharing the Sanders data tonight is that I'm a fairness guy, and *someone*—either Sanders, Buttigieg, or Warren—is being denied good press tonight. That's just wrong—especially when the fact that Biden and Klobuchar were not in the top three seems clear.
ANALYSIS3/ If you watched CNN/MSNBC tonight, you certainly saw that Pete Buttigieg performed better than many expected. You also saw Sanders cleaning up in several of the state's largest precincts—*and* you saw Elizabeth Warren performing a *very* strong second in many locations.
ANALYSIS4/ Buttigieg hasn't published his internal data that I know of; if and when he does, I'm happy to publish that too—and note that *neither Sanders nor Buttigieg are my candidate*. But I certainly *believe* Pete that their internal data had them either first or close to it.
ANALYSIS5/ I *also* think all indications are that Warren had a *very* strong night, so she deserves to have data out underscoring that the chances are very high she outperformed Joe Biden and outperformed the candidate she shared a NEW YORK TIMES endorsement with, Amy Klobuchar.
ANALYSIS6/ The reason I am *not* posting the precinct-by-precinct data Buttigieg is posting publicly is because it has the log-in PINs on it, and there are some saying that it was/is inappropriate to post those documents. If Buttigieg posts a *summary* sheet, I'll post that here.
ANALYSIS7/ Anyone reading this thread will agree it makes clear these results are INCOMPLETE. That doesn't mean they're not telling. If Biden had been at 12% with 40% of precincts reporting, you tell *me* what the analysis on CNN/MSNBC would've sounded like—it would've been dire.
ANALYSIS8/ As a "fairness" guy, I was very angry at Biden's campaign using its lawyers to delegitimize the caucus after what appeared by all accounts to be a bad night for the former VP. Candidly, that was a super shady move—so no, I don't think it should be rewarded in any way.
ANALYSIS9/ *If* the results from the first 40% of precincts hold up in *general* terms—Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg in the top 3 in some combination—it is *huge* news, because those 3 candidates stand a *very* good chance of beating Biden and Klobuchar *again* in New Hampshire.
ANALYSIS10/ CNN and MSNBC will be telling us, quite understandably, *if* those 40% results hold up, that Buttigieg is *likely*, post New Hampshire, to be the leading moderate choice; Warren, the leading unity choice; Sanders, the leading socialist choice (by his own description).
ANALYSIS11/ So I think it's important we start that conversation now—and not let post-caucus shenanigans permit two campaigns to treat Iowa like it didn't happen. It did; we await full results; but early returns are bad for Biden, and Klobuchar—contra her claims—*underperformed*.
ANALYSIS12/ Moreover, the *early* returns do show a strong night for each of Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg—even if we don't know what the final numbers will look like. And *all three* of those candidates deserve not to have the caucuses erased due to events outside their control.
CONCLUSION/ Do remember that this data is only a conversation-starter; treat this data as you would if you were watching CNN and these were the results with 40% of precincts reporting. The 1-2-3 spots certainly *could* change dramatically between these results and the final ones.
PS/ Regarding the 4-5 spots, *if* they're occupied by Biden and Klobuchar and *if* Klobuchar finishes ahead of Biden... I don't know how he fundraises going forward. He's already lagging way behind the current 1-2-3 in terms of cash. So do stay tuned to the Biden-Klobuchar race.
