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$TSLA master thread.
In case you missed any of the below threads on topics including:
Tesla's current & future EV powertrain & battery tech advantages, production growth, operating leverage, Wright’s Law, share price drivers, S&P 500, options delta hedging, converts, UK BIK taxes
1)
Tesla Powertrain Introduction:
2)
 Tesla current Battery Cell Technology
3)
 Tesla’s Possible Future Cell Technology and Roadmap
4)
 Tesla current Battery Pack Technology
5)
 Tesla’s Powertrain Battery to Wheel Efficiency:
6)
 Tesla’s Powertrain & Battery Weight advantage:
7)
 Tesla’s Drag Co-efficient advantage:
8)
 Wright’s Law/Learning Rates/Experience Curves:
9)
 Feedback loops at play in the Tesla story (Wright’s Law, Capitalism, viral marketing, reflexivity etc)
10)
 Tesla Maxwell Battery Technology Summary thread:
11)
 Tesla Future Operating Leverage Potential:
12)
 Tesla’s 2020 and 2021 Production Potential:
13)
 Tesla’s 2020 and 2021 Production Potential Second Thread:
14)
 UK market potential for Tesla on huge BIK tax incentive improvement from April 2020.
15)
 What are share prices exactly and what are the key drivers of price change?
16)
 S&P 500 potential inclusion summary and impact:
17)
 Tesla’s late 2019 share price rally drivers thread:
18)
 Options Market Delta Hedging extremely powerful Tesla stock price feedback loop:
19)
 Tesla's $4.20bn convertible bonds are now all in the money. What does this mean for Tesla?
20)
 Elon’s Stock comp bonus awards & why it has limited impact to $TSLA's P&L.
21)
 Could $TSLA book a one off up to $2bn deferred tax profit in 2020?
22)
 4Q19 Earnings Recap:
23)
Tesla 4Q19 cash balance & undrawn credit lines and 2019 capital efficiency.
24) What drove the crazy share price moves this week (starting 3rd Feb):
25) In depth look at the options delta hedging feedback loop day to day trends which drove the share price extremes from 3rd Feb:
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Reflex Research
@ReflexFunds
What has driven the crazy moves in Tesla’s share price this week?
Its is hard to know for sure. I think it is a combination of four main things:
1) Relatively few investors have sold on the run up since Oct-19. The past few years of volatility and media negativity led to a concentration of shares in the hands of investors who firmly believe in the long term case and think the company is already worth far over $1,000.
2) New investors are jumping on board both as the Clean Energy transition becomes more clear and as Tesla’s future cash generation potential becomes more obvious.
Read 20 tweets
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Reflex Research
@ReflexFunds
1) A thread on Elon’s stock comp bonus awards & why it has limited impact to $TSLA's P&L.

In March 2018 Elon was awarded 20.3 million stock options (with $350 strike price) to be released in 12 tranches after operational (revenue or EBITDA) & market cap goals are reached.
2) Tesla has set 16 operational Revenue and EBITDA targets and once each is achieved (up to a max 12) a tranche of options can be released subject to meeting further market cap criteria goals.
3) These market cap goals start at $100bn market cap increasing in $50bn increments up to a final $650bn target.
This market cap has to be achieved on average over the previous 6 months and 30 days.
Read 15 tweets
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Reflex Research
@ReflexFunds
I'm updating these convertible debt numbers as $TSLA's rapid share price rise has significantly increased potential positive impact from its convertible bonds & call option hedges.

Tesla's $4.20bn convertible bonds are now all in the money. What does this mean for Tesla?
1) The converts can only be converted by holders within 3 months of maturity but Tesla can choose to repay the converts in cash (at the value of the equivalent shares) or a mix of cash and stock.
2) Tesla has hedged the call option on each bond (by buying call options itself) so it can fund these payments & avoid any new share issuance & dilution. Tesla partly funded buying these call options by selling warrants at higher strike prices.
Read 19 tweets

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