What's the fatality rate of #coronavirus ?
Inside Wuhan: 1 in 23 cases
Outside Wuhan, but inside Hubei: 1 in 71
Outside Hubei but inside China: 1 in 640
Outside the China mainland: 1 in 113
None reflect an accurate fatality rate - but they do reflect the known data.
Inside Wuhan: 1 in 23 cases
Outside Wuhan, but inside Hubei: 1 in 71
Outside Hubei but inside China: 1 in 640
Outside the China mainland: 1 in 113
None reflect an accurate fatality rate - but they do reflect the known data.
Wuhan dropped to a third of total cases as of yesterday, but still has a whopping 73% of total deaths. I asked experts why. 
One major factor is it's likely there are many more cases in Wuhan than are being reported, a crunch on resources means people with milder cases aren't getting tested and counted in the # s
More cases = bad, but it also points to a much lower fatality rate than what we see above
More cases = bad, but it also points to a much lower fatality rate than what we see above
It's important to break this down, because when you see ppl (inc WHO officials or China's foreign minister) citing a fatality rate of ~2% in recent days, often this just = total cases/deaths - not out of laziness, it's a good running estimate, if not the real rate.
Paradoxically, a higher case number could actually be a sign of hope, if the unreported cases were indeed mild, and pushed the fatality rate below 1%, which many predict will happen- it would also mean we may need to shift strategies from "containing it to mitigating its impact"
It's an example of how - at this stage - case figures primarily tell us about healthcare systems and testing practices, not necessarily real #nCoV2019 cases, and logic says we're not doomed (at least not by this).
Full story here: reuters.com/article/us-chi…
Full story here: reuters.com/article/us-chi…
