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My theory of the race from the beginning was that Dem voters were looking for a shiny object. An ascendant new face who can beat Trump.

Polling has consistently been ominous for Biden and Sanders. Neither has the numbers a typical lead horse has when entering with name rec.

1/
That’s why we have seen repeated boom-bust cycles.

A candidate emerges, rises, and is swallowed up by the pack.

Bloomberg isn’t anymore my preferred candidate than Biden or Bernie but the dynamics of the race are starting to favor him somewhat.

2/
Don’t be surprised if we get to Super Tuesday with Bloomberg poised to compete strongly.

If Biden underperforms in NH, a rapid rise could be even more dramatic.

People are looking for candidate-as-savior-from-Trump. ANY candidate-as-savior.

Mike has upside. Like it or not.
3/3
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More from @HoarseWisperer see all

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The Hoarse Whisperer
@HoarseWisperer
I’m just going to add any further debate comments under this thread.

Not sure there will be many but makes it easier to follow or mute depending on your interest.

1/
Indeed he did. It was an unusually conciliatory tone in a place where Sanders is usually combative.

Question about whether the candidates would have ordered the strike on Soleimani.

Mayor Pete’s answer sounded like a cogent grad school paper.

Biden’s sounded like an ex-Vice President’s.

Bernie’s sounded like an opinion at a coffee house open mic night.
Read 21 tweets
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The Hoarse Whisperer
@HoarseWisperer
So, in a slight nod to the fact that caucuses inherently suppress turnout and are inaccessible, Iowa added “satellite caucuses” for people who couldn’t make the designated evening time.

Now, bear in mind, Iowa covers 56,000 square miles.

The satellites favored the denser parts.
The one outstanding satellite will count for either 5 or 11 “state delegate equivalents”.

The deciding factor?

Whether the attendance was 600 or 601 people.

If it was 600 or less, it counts for five. It was 601 or more, it counts for eleven.

2/
Iowa maintains a caucus for one reason:

It allows them to remain the first contest in the nation.

New Hampshire is the first primary. Iowa is the first caucus.

Without a caucus, Iowa wouldn’t be allowed to go first.

3/
Read 4 tweets
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The Hoarse Whisperer
@HoarseWisperer
I like data and am a bit of an analytic dork by nature, so I’ve been watching the deeper metrics of candidate second choices for a while now.

The conventional wisdom is that Warren and Sanders split a pool of voters who would largely migrate to Sanders if Warren dropped out.
1/5
I have seen no data which supports that theory.

Warren’s supporters are largely team players. A recent poll showed *100%* of them would back the nominee whomever it was.

Only just over 50% of Sanders supporters said the same.

2/5
When Warren supporters are asked - or were forced in Iowa - to pick a second choice, Sanders gains little or nothing on other candidates.

As has been a widely held view for a very long time, Sanders is polarizing with a low ceiling.

A pop. in the 25% range strongly prefer him.
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW poll of the 2020 Democratic primary from The Economist and YouGov:

% support among likely voters (change vs last month)

Biden: 26 (3)
Warren: 21 (-5)
Sanders: 16 (-1)
Buttigieg: 11 (2)
Bloomberg: 4 (-)
Yang: 3 (0)
Gabbard: 3 (1)
Booker: 3 (1)
Klobuchar: 2 (-1)
Which candidates are Democratic primary voters considering voting for? (Pooled over the last month)

Warren: 50%
Biden: 50
Sanders: 39
Buttigieg: 35
Harris: 26%
Booker: 20%
Klobuchar: 16%
Yang: 14%
Bloomberg: 12
Castro: 10%

All else under 10%
Which candidates would Democratic voters be disappointed by if they won the nomination?

37% say Gabbard:
Williamson: 36%
Bloomberg: 31%
Biden: 24%
Steyer: 23%
Sanders: 22%
Delaney: 22%
Yang: 18%
Klobuchar: 17%
Warren: 16%
Buttigieg: 15%
Booker: 14%
Read 4 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW poll of the 2020 Democratic primary from The Economist and YouGov:

% support among likely voters (change v last month)
Warren: 28 (+4)
Biden: 25 (+1)
Sanders: 13 (-4)
Harris: 5 (0)
Buttigieg: 5 (-1)
Yang: 3 (+1)
Bullock: 2 (+1)
Klobuchar: 2 (+1)

All else ≤ 1%
% of Democratic primary voters considering voting for each candidate (over last month):

Warren: 55%
Biden: 47
Sanders: 39
Harris: 30
Buttigieg: 28
Booker: 18
O'Rourke: 16
Yang: 13
Klobuchar: 11
Castro: 11

All else < 10%
% of Democratic primary voters who would be disappointed if ___ candidate won the nomination (over the last month):

Williamson: 32
Gabbard: 23
Biden: 22
Delaney: 21
Steyer: 20
Sanders: 19
Bennet: 17
Yang: 17
O'Rourke: 16
Booker: 13
Buttigieg: 11
Warren: 8
Read 7 tweets
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Corentin Sellin
@CorentinSellin
Et si on faisait 1 synthèse de la situation de #Trump après 1 semaine d'enquête en #impeachment et de révélations folles. Dernière en date, selon le @nytimes: 1 2nd agent du renseignement confirme sur l'#Ukraine et pourrait lui aussi lancer 1 alerte. nytimes.com/2019/10/04/us/…
@nytimes 2) La 1ère chose à dire est que #Trump, pour la 1ère fois peut-être dans sa carrière politique, n'est pas parvenu à "arrêter le saignement" (comme on dit aux #EtatsUnis) provoqué par le lancement d'alerte sur l'#Ukraine puis l'ouverture des vannes de l'enquête en #impeachment...
@nytimes 3)… il y a depuis 10 jours une cascade ininterrompue de faits révélés par le début de l'enquête en #impeachment de la Chambre et des infos de la presse qui accablent #Trump au point d'avoir fait bouger l'opinion. Substantiellement.
Read 28 tweets
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Peter Daou
@peterdaou
The Democratic field is effectively #Biden, #Warren, #Sanders, #Harris, and #Buttigieg

#DemDebate2
To clarify, I'm going by poll averages over the past few months. I don't think the debates have materially changed the dynamics of the race or altered the top tier.
That said, I think Biden's recent downward drift and Warren's rise will continue.
Read 3 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden slumps, #Buttigieg soars, tied with #Sanders and #Warren, #Harris next in benchmark #Iowa poll thehill.com/homenews/campa…
Critical point here is that the MSM is claiming that #Sanders "came within a handful of votes" of #HillaryClinton, when he lost in a landslide of 4M votes, 1k pledged delegates (not SDs) and a dozen states.
2/
This false narrative harms #Sanders--it's meant to highlight how badly he's doing in 2020 and prop up #Biden. But Sanders is actually doing better than in 2016. There are just more players. And Biden is being replaced by a younger centrist, #Buttigieg.
3/
Read 8 tweets
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Ryan James Girdusky
@RyanGirdusky
New Fox News Poll takeaways:
#Trump approval rating 46-51
- among Union Households 52-45
- college educated whites 48-49
- non-college whites 59-38
- Indies 40-48
Approval of the economy
- 53-43; whites 60-35; whites w/ college 57-38; Clinton voters 20-76
Approval of immigration
- 43-55; women 35-62; Trump voters 85-12
Approval of #SCOTUS
- 45-46; Catholics 48-43; White Evangelicals 60-25; Conservatives 75-10
Interested in the 2018 election
Extremely: Dems 54%; GOP 47%; Indies 26%
Clinton Voters 54%; Trump Voters 49%
Read 4 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Lavrov #JohnBolton #Trump #Buttigieg #Walkaway #president #EenemyOfThePeople #Trump4Ever #BRAVO #Socialist #PANIC #KAG #Bangladesh #LockHimUp #Condolences #farm #MickMulvaney #CRISIS #Peace #Salute #Cybersecurity #Hollywood #News #ItsHAPPENING #ImpeachmentVote
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