THREAD 1/10 Why aren’t Russians protesting against Putin’s plans to change the constitution? Two Moscow municipal councilors had permission to hold a protest rally on Feb 1 — and then changed their minds, apparently due to lack of public support. carnegie.ru/p-80931
2/10 So why do people come out in force over the Moscow parliament elections, but stand by when Putin wants to change the constitution? Because protests are triggered by dashed hopes, not anticipation of the future.
3/10 Putin’s planned reforms have not disappointed people’s expectations. They have forestalled them. Sure, some people are saying it’s effectively the dawn of “Putin forever.” But it’s too early to know that for sure.
4/10 Putin’s current term doesn’t end till 2024. By taking action earlier than people expected, the authorities have created the impression that they’re changing the status quo, not cementing it. There’s a new prime minister, & people are just happy to hear new nameы.
5/10 This explains the lack of much appetite for protests. The events of this month are perceived not as the perpetuation of the current leadership, but as the appearance within it of someone who is, at long last, not Putin and not Medvedev.
6/10 As for the proposed changes to the State Council, they are still too vague to inspire people to take to the streets. The theory that Putin will become the lifelong head of the council with unknown powers isn’t enough.
7/10 And the most clearly defined of all Putin’s proposals—to limit future presidents to a total of two terms—is seen as a progressive innovation rather than cause to protest. Similarly, Medvedev’s removal is seen as a surprise bonus, coming at a time when few expected it.
8/10 This strategy of commencing change before anyone expected it and at a rapid pace while introducing new names and rafts of reforms have left most Russians dumbfounded and intrigued, but not necessarily angry.
9/10 People may react differently only if the constitutional changes turn out to contradict their expectations. Right now, the general consensus is that Putin will step down from the presidency, even if it is effectively to move upward.
10/10 If Putin does otherwise, eg uses the new constitution to reset the clock on presidential terms and runs for president again, then people will find their expectations confounded, and then there will be a real risk of protests. carnegie.ru/p-80931
