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It is hard to understate just how out of the mainstream or really any stream the Administration's latest economic forecast is. 16 Members of the FOMC (including 4 Trump appointees) released forecasts in Dec. The latest administration forecast is way above the top of their range.
That is to say, the most optimistic of the sixteen people in the FOMC forecast expects 2.3% growth in 2020 (Q4/Q4). The administration expects 3.1%.
The forecast is similarly an outlier from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, which includes 38 forecasts (names below). Their median expectation for this year is 1.9%. The 3rd most optimistic person is at 2.5% (one of them is at 3.1%) and the 3rd most pessimistic at 1.2%.
Under Bush, Clinton and Obama the 10-year growth forecasts never differed from the Blue Chip forecast by more than 0.1 percentage point per year on average. This one is nearly 1.0 percentage point above the consensus for longer-term growth rates.
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